国际有色金属价格影响因素的非对称性研究  

Research on the Asymmetry of Price Influencing Factors with Regard to the International Nonferrous Metal

作　　者：鄢红兵[1] 成金华[2] 朱永光[1] YAN Hongbing;CHENG Jinhua;ZHU Yongguang(School of Economics and Management of China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, Hubei 430074;Research Center for Natural Resource & Environmental Economics of China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, Hubei 430074)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)经济管理学院,湖北武汉430074 [2]中国地质大学(武汉)资源环境经济研究中心,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《中国国土资源经济》2017年第3期59-63,共5页Natural Resource Economics of China

基　　金：中国地质调查局项目"中国矿产品市场制度与矿业资本市场研究"(12120115057701)

摘　　要：文章基于经济周期的视角,首先通过邹氏检验将有色金属价格进行了断点检验,然后利用因子分析方法,将解释变量整合成了三个因子——供需基本面及宏观经济形势、货币政策、金融因素,最后分别对经济繁荣期和经济萧条期有色金属价格影响因素的不同作用机制进行了分析。结果表明:经济周期不同阶段,各影响因素的作用机制并不相同;经济繁荣期,供需与宏观经济形势、货币政策、金融因素对价格均有正向作用,且是价格的主要影响因素;经济萧条期,三种因素作用效果减弱,货币政策变量调整作用加强,金融因素作用方向发生变化,起着负向作用。Based on the perspective of the business cycle, this paper firstly carries out a breakpoint test for the non-ferrous metal prices by chow test. Then using the factor analysis, it integrates explanatory variables into three factors, that is, supply and demand fundamentals and macro-economic situation, monetary policy, and financial factor. Finally, it analyzes the different mechanism of non-ferrous metal prices influence factors both during the economic boom and during a down economy respectively. The results show that the action mechanisms of various factors in different stages of business cycle have different mechanisms. This means that in the boom, three factors such as supply and demand and macroeconomic situation, monetary policy, financial factor have positive roles on the price, and which are the major influencing factors on the price. During a down economy, the effect of the three factors decreases.However, both variable adjustment function of monetary policy and the action orientation of financial factors have changed, which play a negative role.

关 键 词：有色金属价格 经济周期 因子分析 邹氏检验 非对称性 

分 类 号：F407.1[经济管理—产业经济] F062.1