羊群行为视角下农户生产的“一家两制”分析——基于山东784份农户调查数据  

Analysis on "one household, two systems" phenomenon from the perspective of herd behavior: Based on a field survey of 784 farmers in Shandong province

作　　者：彭军[1,2] 乔慧[2] 郑风田[2] PENG Jun;QIAO Hui;ZHENG Fengtian(Post-Doctoral Research Center, Postal Savings Bank of China, Beijing 100808, China;School of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China)

机构地区：[1]中国邮政储蓄银行博士后科研工作站,北京100808 [2]中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院,北京100872

出　　处：《湖南农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2017年第2期1-9,共9页Journal of Hunan Agricultural University(Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71173225)

摘　　要：基于农户在"一家两制"现象扩散过程中的领头羊和追随者两种角色,结合贝叶斯学习理论和信息瀑布理论分别给出其决策模型,并借助模型刻画了追随者如何受到领头羊行为的影响而采纳"一家两制"生产行为。基于山东省784份农户调查数据,从领头羊行为和家庭特征、市场因素、生产规范、认知方面选取15个变量,运用Logit模型、Probit模型、Cloglog模型、工具变量法对农户采纳"一家两制"的影响因素进行分析。结果表明:周围领头羊的行为对农户采用"一家两制"生产行为具有显著的正向影响,且这一结果很稳健。这说明正确榜样的缺失导致了农户对农药化肥等化学投入品使用"一家两制"现象的扩散。First,based on role of bellwether and epigone in the diffusion of the"one household,two systems"phenomenon,and combined with Bayesian Learning theory and Information Cascade theory,this paper deduced thedecision models of the two roles,and depicted how epigone was affected by the bellwether to adopt"one household,twosystems"in production.Then,based on784survey data of farmers in Shandong province,this article chose15variablesfrom5aspects of bellwether behavior,household characteristics,market factors,production specifications,cognitive,using Logit model,Probit model,Cloglog model,IV estimation to analyze the factors influencing farmers’decision of"one household,two systems".The result shows that the behavior of bellwether nearby has significantly positiveinfluence on farmers’adoption of"one household,two systems".The result is robust,which indicates the lack of properrole models leads to the diffusion of"one household,two systems"in the use method of pesticides,fertilizers and otherchemical inputs.

关 键 词：一家两制 领头羊 追随者 扩散 

分 类 号：F203[经济管理—国民经济]