农民工工资性收入不确定性及其影响因素——基于CGSS数据的反事实因果分析  

Uncertainty and influencing factors of salary income of migrant workers: Based on the counterfactual analysis of CGSS

作　　者：孙学涛[1] 李明文[1] 王振华[1] 江金启[1] SUN Xuetao;LI Mingwen;WANG Zhenhua;JIANG Jinqi(College of Economics and Management, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang 110866,China)

机构地区：[1]沈阳农业大学经济管理学院,辽宁沈阳110866

出　　处：《湖南农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2017年第2期10-16,共7页Journal of Hunan Agricultural University(Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71503173;71273179;713073161);辽宁省社会科学基金项目(L15CJY014;L16AJY007);辽宁省教育厅人文社科项目(W2015336)

摘　　要：引入效用理论的分析框架,采用反事实分析方法,基于CGSS数据测度农民工工资性收入的不确定性及其协同不确定性、异质不确定性和不确定性误差的分解情况,并分析其影响因素。结果表明:农民工工资性收入总不确定性的绝对值为0.018;总不确定性中协同不确定性占比达到81.62%,而异质不确定性占比不到20%;不同农民工群体间的不确定性差异较大,东部地区及从事高技能工作或自雇的农民工工资性收入不确定性较低。健康状况、社会资本和区域变量等因素对农民工工资性收入不确定性有显著的负向影响;工资性收入、高技能和自雇职业等因素对农民工工资性收入不确定性有显著的正向影响。Based on CGSS data,the essay uses the counterfactual method and develops the utility theory framework tomeasure the uncertainty of salary income of migrant workers,and decomposes it into collaborative uncertainty,idiosyncratic uncertainty and measurement error of uncertainty.The results show that the absolute value about the totaluncertainty of the migrant worker’s wage income is0.018,the proportion of collaborative uncertainty reached81.62%,and the proportion of idiosyncratic uncertainty is less than20%.The uncertainty of salary income of migrant workerswith high skill or self-employed of coastal provinces is lower than that of other provinces.Health status,social capitaland regional variables have significant negative impact on peasant workers'salary income uncertainty.Salary income,high skill and self-employed professional and occupation variables have significant positive influence on it.

关 键 词：农民工 工资性收入 不确定性 反事实分析 

分 类 号：F323.6[经济管理—产业经济]