生育政策调整对生育意愿影响研究——基于2015年追踪调查数据的发现  

Analysis on the Change of Fertility Intention After the Adjustment of Birth Control Policies:Based on the 2015 Fertility Intention Tracking Survey

作　　者：姜玉[1,2] 庄亚儿[2] JIANG Yu;ZHUANG Ya-er(Jilin University,Changchun 130012;China Population and Development Research Center,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学东北亚研究院,长春130012 [2]中国人口与发展研究中心,北京100081

出　　处：《西北人口》2017年第3期33-37,44,共6页Northwest Population Journal

基　　金：国家科技部"十二五"国家科技支撑计划项目"人口与发展数学模型与综合决策支持系统"(项目编号:2012BAI40B01)

摘　　要：文章利用2015年生育意愿追踪调查数据,分析"单独两孩"政策出台后我国居民的生育意愿变化情况,单独一孩家庭打算生育二孩的比例为39.5%,普通一孩家庭为32.2%,较以前有所下降。前续调查对于是否生育二孩表示"说不好"的人群中,追踪调查显示大约60%倾向于不打算生育,政策目标人群由"打算生"到"不打算生"是生育意愿转变的主要趋势,经济压力大是影响生育二孩的首要原因,政策敏感人群所占比重在地区间存在差异,政策落地对优生筛查、孕产服务、幼教等方面提出更高要求,需要做好各项公共政策衔接,确保实施效果。This paper utilizes the2015fertility intention tracking survey data to analyze the variations in the fertility inten?tion of Chinese people upon the promulgation of the“Single Permitted Two-Child"policy.Only-child couples with a childexpecting another child account for39.5%,for non-only-child couples,it is32.2%,down compared with the times beforepromulgation of this policy.For couples who are“uncertain”whether to have second child in2013,about60%do not in?tend to in2015.This mainly results of the shift in the fertility intention of target population group from"positive"to"nega?tive".Pressures on family’s economic wellbeing is the main considerations.There are great differences about proportion ofpolicy sensitive people between regions.Greater demands are being placed on prenatal screening、maternity services、pre?school education.It requires a good job on public policy convergence to ensure the policy effect.

关 键 词：“全面两孩”政策 生育意愿 经济压力 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学]