油茶象甲灾害预警指标体系研究  

Study on Early-warning Index System to Insect Attack of Curculio chinensis

作　　者：林海云 秦长生[2] 赵丹阳[2] 徐金柱[2] 邱华龙[2] 揭育泽[2] LIN Haiyun;QIN Changsheng;ZHAO Danyang;XU Jinzhu;QIU Hualong;JIE Yuze(Dalingshan Forest Park, Dongguan, Guangdong 523003, China;Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Silviculture, Protection and Utilization/Guangdong Academy of Forestry, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510520, China)

机构地区：[1]东莞市大岭山森林公园,广东东莞523003 [2]广东省森林培育与保护利用重点实验室/广东省林业科学研究院,广东广州510520

出　　处：《林业与环境科学》2017年第2期53-57,共5页Forestry and Environmental Science

基　　金：广东省林业科技创新专项项目"油茶象甲安全防控技术研究与示范"(2014KJCX020-03)

摘　　要：将油茶象甲(Curculio chinensis)灾变过程中表现出的警源、警兆和警情相关的不同风险要素作为统计指标,对预警指标体系指标值权重进行赋值并运算,构建了灾变监测预警模型,确定了油茶象甲灾变预警等级。选取粤北地区2015年油茶象甲发生情况为例,进行风险警级评估,计算其警源、警兆和警情值分别为23.9、33.5、28.2,综合预警指标值为Y=85.6,由此判定2015年油茶象甲在粤北地区预警等级为重警,应发布红色预警信号。The monitoring and early-warning models were structured by setting up the weight indexes of theearly-warning index system,based on the different risky factors related to the risky source,risky sign and riskycause exhibiting in the process of calamities occurrence.This paper chose the case of Curculio chinensis in northGuangdong in2015as an example to carry on the risk warning level assessment,and the results showed that eachfactor index of source of warning,warning sign and warning cause was23.9,33.5and28.2,respectively,the integratedearly-warning value was:Y=85.6.The risky degree of calamity of C.chinensis was at the highest warninglevel,and red alerts should be delivered.

关 键 词：油茶象甲 灾害 预警 指标体系 

分 类 号：S763.38[农业科学—森林保护学]