太湖流域水环境承载力评价研究  

Study on water environmental carrying capacity evaluation in Taihu lake Basin

作　　者：汪嘉杨[1] 翟庆伟[1] 郭倩[1] 陶韵竹[1] WANG Jia-yang;ZHAI Qing-wei;GUO Qian;TAO Yun-zhu(College of Resources and Environment, Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610041, China)

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程大学资源环境学院,四川成都610041

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2017年第5期1979-1987,共9页China Environmental Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51209024);国家社会科学基金资助项目(13BGL009);四川省社科项目(SC15TJ019);四川省教育厅项目(15ZA0192;16ZA0207)

摘　　要：构建"驱动力D(人口、社会经济发展)-压力P(水资源问题与污染排放)-状态S(水质变化)-影响I(自然生态、水土资源)-响应R(污水处理、用水普及)-管理M(绿化、投资)"(DPSIRM)评价模型,并从社会经济、水资源、水质状态、投资管理等方面选取指标,建立具有3层结构的评价指标体系.引入变异系数法进行各指标权重赋值,计算太湖流域2005~2014年的水环境承载力评价指数,获得相应评价等级.结果表明:太湖流域水环境承载力有明显好转,评价等级从2005年的Ⅲ级转变为2014年的Ⅱ级.压力指标所起作用最为显著,状态指标紧随其后,其次是驱动力指标、影响指标和响应指标,管理指标作用相对较小.10年间,驱动力子系统指数明显呈上升趋势,影响和管理子系统的指数出现波动,压力、状态和响应子系统的指数均随年份增长而呈上升趋势,压力子系统指数上升幅度最大,表明2005~2014年太湖流域水环境对工农经济发展的承载能力在增强.对水环境承载力影响程度最大的指标中,万元GDP水耗和单位工业产值废水排放量都属于压力子系统指标,表明压力子系统指标所起作用最为显著.研究表明,构建的太湖流域水环境承载力评价的DPSIRM模型具有实用性和可行性,可以为区域水环境规划与综合管理的科学决策提供依据.The evaluation index system with three-layer structure had been established for the evaluation of water environmental carrying capacity according to construction of DPSIRM model.The DPSIRM model mainly involved Driving Force(D:population,socio-economic development),Pressure(P:water problems and pollution emissions),State(S:water quality changes),Impact(I:natural ecology,water and soil resources),Response(R:sewage treatment and water penetration)and Management(M:green,investment).Several indexes were chosen from socio-economic,water resources,water quality status,investment management and other aspects.And the variation coefficient method was used to determine the weight of each index in order to calculate the evaluation index of water environment carrying capacity in Taihu Lake Basin from2005to2014for assessing the effect of social economy on water environment.The results indicated that the economic and environmental carrying capacity of Taihu Lake Basin exhibited a significant improvement from Grade III in2005to Grade II in2014.The Pressure indicator plays the most significant role,followed by State,Drive force,Impact and Response in sequence.The Management indicator has the weakest impact in the six subsystems.During the decade,the Driving force indicator exhibits a clear upward trend;the Impact and Management indicators were in undulation;other indicators such as the Pressure,State and Response increased year by year.The results suggest that the carrying capacity of Taihu Lake Basin on industrial and agricultural economic development is enhanced from2005to2014.Among all evaluation indexes,both water consumption per million yuan GDP and wastewater discharge per unit of industrial output could be attributed to the pressure indicator,indicating that the pressure indicator exhibited a comprehensive impact on water environment evaluation.The DPSIRM model was therefore proved to be practical and feasible for evaluating the water environment carrying capacity of Taihu Lake Basin,and also provided the basis for making

关 键 词：DPSIRM模型 变异系数法 水环境承载力 评价 太湖流域 

分 类 号：X143[环境科学与工程—环境科学]