乌鲁木齐河流域致灾洪水临界雨量分析  

Analysis of Critical Rainfall of Flood Disaster in Urumqi River Basin

作　　者：陈颖[1] 陈鹏翔[1] 江远安[1] 樊静[1] 余行杰[1] 白素琴[1] CHEN Ying;CHEN Pengxiang;JIANG Yuanan;FAN Jing;YU Xingjie;BAI Suqin(Xinjiang Climate Center,Urumqi 830002,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆气候中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2017年第2期8-13,共6页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金："山洪地质灾害防治气象保障工程"中"气象风险预警基本业务支撑能力"和"山洪灾害风险普查"项目共同资助

摘　　要：采用乌鲁木齐河流域的气象资料、水文资料以及地理信息数据和暴雨洪涝灾情数据,以乌鲁木齐河流域为研究对象,在了解其致灾降雨特征的基础上,利用统计模型和HBV水文模型分别分析其临界致灾雨量,评估模型计算过程和结果的优劣,讨论模型结果在天山山脉浅山地带中小河流域的合理性。在历史洪水过程的降雨量验证的基础上,通过对模型和计算过程及与实际情况的比较,HBV水文模型得到的二级和三级预警致灾临界雨量分别是40.6 mm和25.9 mm,而统计模型得到的二级和三级预警致灾临界雨量分别是47.5 mm和26.9 mm,两种方法模拟得到的致灾临界雨量均是合理并且实际可能出现的;从相关性上来看HBV水文模型模拟的结果要优于统计模型计算的结果,对西北地区有融雪性洪水补给的河流径流模拟具有借鉴意义。The critical rainfall is an important index of the mountain torrents disaster forecast,which plays an important role in flood prevention.It determined the critical rainfall by different calculation methods,based on the presence or absence of hydrological and precipitation data By the XIAO-Quzi,Da-Xigou,BAI-Yanggou stations from January1st,2006to December31st,2010.The HBV hydrological model and statistical model were used to calculate the critical rainfall caused disaster at Hero bridge station in Urumqi River Basin.Model and calculate process were analyzed and proven by the historical process of rainfall flood.HBV hydrological model set the rainfall runoff and snowmelt runoff simulation in one,through the generalized to consider the differences in elevation,vegetation and other surfaces to carry out the simulation of rainfall runoff.It has the reference significance to northwest rivers runoff snowmelt flood recharge simulation.Level2nd and level3rd disaster critical rainfall calculated by HBV hydrological model were40.6mm and25.9mm,which obtained from statistics model were47.5mm and26.9mm.Observed from the numerical value were reasonable and practical possible.To the fitting effect,correlation coefficient between the flow simulated by HBV model and actual flow simulation was0.87.The multiple correlation coefficients between the statistical model and actual was0.53.Contrasted with the correlation of simulation results,HBV model was better than statistical model.Contrasted with the results,the critical rainfall calculated by the HBV model and the statistical model is less than the actual minimum rainfall value of the flood process.By comparison,the critical rainfall calculated by the statistical model was more close to the real minimum rainfall value of flood process.In the calculated process,change trend of flow can be fitted well,but the peak value is always less than the actual value of the flow.This should be the main reason which critical rainfall final calculation is less than the actual minimum rainfall valu

关 键 词：HBV水文模型 统计模型 临界降雨量 

分 类 号：S421[农业科学—植物保护]