模糊综合评价在矿产品价格预测中的应用——以湖北省恩施市为实证  

Application of Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation in Forecasting Mineral Product Price——Taking Enshi City as a case study

作　　者：郑文强 李爽 李伟[3] 王磊[3] 白瑛 ZHENG Wenqiang;LI Shuang;LI Wei;WANG Lei;BAI Ying(Hongda Blasting Co., Ltd., Guangzhou Guangdong 511300, China;Hubei Realhom Appraisal & Consulting Co., Ltd, Wuhan 430070,China;Department of Land and Resources of Hubei Province, Wuhan 430070, China)

机构地区：[1]宏大爆破有限公司,广东广州511300 [2]湖北永业行评估咨询有限公司,武汉430070 [3]湖北省国土资源厅,武汉430070

出　　处：《中国国土资源经济》2017年第5期62-65,72,共5页Natural Resource Economics of China

摘　　要：矿产品的市场价格是一个多因子耦合作用的复杂动态系统,难以用一种指标的监测结果来对价格进行综合性的评价,采用模糊综合评价方法进行矿产品价格预测能较好地体现各影响因素对其的相互作用。以湖北省恩施市建筑石料矿山为研究对象,在实地调研、计算得到综合权重的基础上,对建筑石料的价格区间进行了模糊评判。研究表明:预测结果与实际情况基本吻合,准确率达到86.4%,该方法适用于同类矿产品的价格分析与预测,对目前正在开展的湖北省矿产品市场价格动态监测工作也有一定的指导意义。The market price of mineral products is a complex dynamic system with multi-factor coupling.It is difficult to evaluate the price comprehensively with the monitoring results of one index.The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method can be used to predict the price of mineral products,which can reflect the interaction influence of each factor.This paper takes the building stone mines of Enshi city in Hubei province as research objects.Based on field research and the comprehensive weight calculation,the price range of the building stone is evaluated by fuzzy judgment.The results show that the predicted results are in good agreement with the actual situation,and the accuracy rate is86.4%.The method is suitable for the price analysis and forecasting of similar minerals.It is also instructive for the current price monitoring of mineral products in Hubei Province.

关 键 词：矿产品价格 动态监测 建筑石料 模糊综合评判 影响因素 恩施 湖北 

分 类 号：F407.1[经济管理—产业经济] F062.1