成渝高速铁路旅客客运产品选择行为研究  

Research of transport product choice behavior for Chengdu-Chongqing High-speed Railway

作　　者：温念慈 王文宪[3] 倪少权[1,2] 雷莉[1] WEN Nianci;WANG Wenxian;NI Shaoquan;LEI Li(School of Traffic and Transportation, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, China;National Railway Train Diagram Research and Training Center, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, China;School of Energy and Engineering, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 454000, China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,四川成都610031 [2]西南交通大学全国铁路列车运行图编制研发培训中心,四川成都610031 [3]河南理工大学能源科学与工程学院,河南焦作454000

出　　处：《铁道科学与工程学报》2017年第5期892-898,共7页Journal of Railway Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(61273242)

摘　　要：根据成渝高铁沿线区域的SP和RP调查数据,构建以高铁出行方式为上层、客运产品为下层的高铁旅客客运产品选择行为的Nested Logit模型。运用BIOGEME软件对2类高铁出行方式和客运产品上下层参数进行标定。研究结果表明:年龄、性别、收入、费用类型、票价率和舒适度这6种因素对旅客在各客运产品之间的选择产生影响,而收入、费用类型、出行距离、票价率和旅行时间这5种因素对旅客在2种高铁出行方式上的选择上产生较大影响。λ和命中率等指标的数值分别验证了模型结构的合理性和参数标定的准确性,研究成果对高铁运营部门在设计满足旅客差异化出行需求的客运产品方面有重要的意义。According to the SP and RP survey data on Chengdu-Chongqing high-speed rail way passengers,a Nested Logit model for passenger transport product choice behavior was developed,with high-speed railway travel mode locates in upper layer and passenger transport product choice locates in lower layer.The parameter of two layers are estimated by the BIOGEME.The result shows that passenger transport product choice of passengers is greatly influenced by age,gender,income,expense type,fare rate,and comfortable degree,and the travel mode choice of passengers is sharply influenced by income,expense type,trip distance,fare rate and travel time.Numerical value ofλand accuracy rate validate the rationality of model structure and the accuracy of parameter calibration.The result is beneficial for operation department designing abundant passenger transport product to meet passengers’differentiated demand.

关 键 词：铁路运输 NL模型 非集计理论 客运产品选择行为 特性变量 

分 类 号：U293.3[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]