如何全面准确地认识和衡量我国的赤字率和政府债务负担水平  

How to Fully and Accurately Understand and Measure China's Deficit Rate and the Level of Government Debt Burden

作　　者：刁伟涛[1] 

机构地区：[1]青岛理工大学经贸学院

出　　处：《财经智库》2017年第1期81-94,共14页Financial Minds

摘　　要：随着新预算法的实施,我国财政赤字和政府债务的内涵和外延都相应地发生了变化。文章首先厘清赤字率相关指标,区分了名义赤字和实际赤字、一般赤字和专项赤字、预算内赤字和预算外赤字,然后在此基础上计算相应指标,最终加总得到我国政府2008—2015年的实际总赤字率。接着,文章又对政府债务的相关概念进行了辨识梳理,明确了衡量债务负担水平的两大指标:负债率和债务率,并分别计算了中央和地方政府的这两个指标,最终加总得到我国政府2008—2015年的负债率和债务率,然后基于这两个指标,又进一步计算和分析了地方政府一般债务和专项债务的负担状况。总体而言,我国的实际赤字率并不是太高,2008—2015年的平均水平为4.242%,政府债务的负担状况虽然上升较快,但是总体而言水平也不高,不过负债率和债务率这两个指标反映的债务水平有所差异,2015年的负债率为39.41%,低于60%的警戒线,而债务率为137.03%,处于90%~150%的警戒线区间,尤其是地方政府的专项债务率,高达153.70%,偿债风险较高。With the implementation of the new budgetlaw,t h e connotation and extension of China's fiscal deficit and government debt are correspondingly changed.First of all,the paper clarifies the relative indexes of the deficit rate,distinguishes between the nominal deficit and the actual deficit,the general deficit and the special deficit,the budget deficit and the extrabudgetary deficit.Based on these indexes,we calculate the corresponding indicators,and finally get actual total deficit rate of our government during 2008-2015.What's more,the paper identifies the relevant concepts of government debt,clarifies the two indicators of debt burden: debt to GDP ratio(DGR) and debt to fiscal ratio(DFR),and calculates the two indicators of the central and local governments,respectively.Finally,we get DGR and DFR of our government from 2008 to 2015.And then,based on these two indicators,we further calculate and analyze the local government debt and special debt burden.Overall,China's actual deficit rate is not too high,the average is of 4.242%during 2008-2015.Although the burden of government debt rose faster,the overall level is not high.However,the DGR and DFR reflect different debt level,in 2015 the DGR ratio is 39.41%,less than 60% of the warning line,while the DFR is 137.03%,in the 90-150% warning line,especially local government special debt ratio,up to 153.70%,higher debt service risk.

关 键 词：财政赤字 政府债务 赤字率 负债率 债务率 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学]