战后世界政治格局的三次变动与历史质变“临界点”的出现——基于世界地缘政治结构的分析(之一)  

The Three Changes in the Postwar World Political Structure and the Emergence of the “Critical Point” of Historical Changes——Analysis Based on the World Geopolitical Structure(Part Ⅰ)

作　　者：张文木[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学战略问题研究中心

出　　处：《世界社会主义研究》2017年第1期70-81,共12页World Socialism Studies

摘　　要：从时代、地缘政治结构及其变化以及战后世界政治格局三次变动与历史"临界点"出现的三个方面可以看出,十月革命以来,世界历史发生了天翻地覆的变化,但帝国主义时代的基本特征没有变。21世纪的帝国主义是"金融资本对其他一切形式的资本"从占有优势发展到完全统治的帝国主义。苏联解体后,美国连同西方资本主义阵营进入快速衰落期。2016年,历史质变"临界点"出现。根据历史经验,这种"半江瑟瑟半江红"的形势可能要延续二三十年。这就给坚持社会主义制度的中国的崛起在相当长的时期内留下了相当广阔的空间,也就是说,在此期间,实现中华民族的伟大复兴有相当从容的国际环境。独立自主是中国总能在每次世界大变局中化险为夷并占据主动的重要经验。In this paper,the author analyzes the present epoch,the geopolitical structure and its changes,and the three changes in the postwar world political structure and the emergence of the'critical point'of history.It is argued that despite the great historical changes in the world since the October Revolution,the basic characteristics of imperialism has remained the same.Imperialism in the twenty-first century has developed from one in which'the financial capital that had ascendancy over all other forms of capital'to one in which the financial capital is completely dominant.After the collapse of the Soviet Union,the United States and the entire Western capitalist camp entered a period of rapid decline.The'critical point'of historical change appeared in 2016.According to historical experience,current balance between capitalism and socialism may well continue for twenty to thirty years,which gives China-if it remains to be socialist—considerably large space to rise.That is to say,there will be a fairly calm international environment for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.It is independence,rather than the so-called'non-alignment,'that has brought China out of danger and take the initiative in each great change of the world in the past.

关 键 词：十月革命 政治格局 地缘政治结构 

分 类 号：D50[政治法律—政治学] K901.4[政治法律—国际政治]