我国老龄化进程中的第二人口红利:理论与实证  

Theoretical and Empirical Research on Second Demographic Dividend in Process of Aging in China

作　　者：陈纪平[1] CHEN Ji-ping(School of Economics,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆工商大学经济学院,重庆400067

出　　处：《西北人口》2017年第4期18-23,共6页Northwest Population Journal

基　　金：2013年国家社科基金项目"四化同步"框架下劳动力转移与农业现代化协调机制及政策研究"(课题编号:13BGL097)

摘　　要：当前相关研究对第二人口红利的界定并不一致,本文通过对开创性文献及其具体机制的分析发现第二人口红利的本质是居民面临养老风险而提高的储蓄率及其所形成的资本积累效应。利用可支配收入和生活消费支出计算我国的居民储蓄率,在控制了经济发展水平等因素和剔除第一人口红利效应之后,计量分析发现我国人口老龄化过程中存在着显著的第二人口红利。在我国社会养老体制不断变革的背景条件下,人口寿命延长是形成第二人口红利的主要因素,老人抚养比的增大并没有对居民储蓄率造成显著影响。In the present studies on second demographic dividend,this dividend is defined differently for its mechanisms.Through analyzing the creative works on it and its mechanisms,the core point of second dividend is located to the enhanced saving rate by working people facing higher and higher risk of having enough fund for retire life,and this enhanced part of saving could promote economic growth with capital accumulation.Based on the data of saving rate calculated with dominated income and life consumption statistics,after controlling some variables like income level and excluding first demographic dividend,results of econometric analysis show that second demographic dividend exists obviously in economic development of China.On the background that the social endowment system has been developed and transformed in recent decades,longer expected life is the dominating factor for second demographic dividend existing in China,and elderly dependency rate plays no role in it.

关 键 词：老龄化 第二人口红利 储蓄率 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学]