金融服务业FDI与金融服务出口:基于我国1999～2015年数据的分析  

The FDI in Financial Services and Financial Trade Services :An Empirical Analysis Based on the Data from China between 1999 and 2015

作　　者：陈修兰[1] 吴信如[1] Chen Xiulan;Wu Xinru(School of Finance and Statistics, East China Normal University, Shanghai 201100, China)

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学金融与统计学院,上海201100

出　　处：《当代经济管理》2017年第7期75-79,共5页Contemporary Economic Management

摘　　要：近年来,金融服务贸易占服务贸易中的比重逐年增加,服务贸易发展迅速。文章通过构建VAR模型,并应用脉冲响应函数及方差分解方法,对我国1999~2015年的金融服务贸易出口与金融业FDI之间的关系进行了实证分析。实证结果表明,金融服务贸易出口与金融业FDI之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系;由脉冲响应函数及方差分解图可知,金融业FDI对金融服务贸易出口的贡献率一直处于缓慢上升状态,金融服务贸易出口对金融业FDI的贡献率表现出先下降后缓慢上升的规律,由Granger因果关系检验得出金融业FDI是金融服务出口变动的Granger原因。In recent years,the proportion of financial services trade in service trade has increased year by year,and the service trade has also developed rapidly.In this article,we construct the VAR model and use the impulse response function and variance decomposition method to analyze the relationship between financial service trade export and financial industry FDI from1999to2015in China.The empirical results show that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between exports of financial services trade and FDI in the financial industry.From the impulse response function and variance decomposition diagram,the contribution rate of financial industry FDI to financial services trade has been increasing slowly.The contribution rate of trade export to FDI in finance industry shows the law of decline first and then increases slowly.Granger causality test proves that financial industry FDI is Granger reason of financial service export.

关 键 词：金融业FDI 金融服务贸易出口 VAR模型 脉冲响应函数 方差分解 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]