北京市PM_(2.5)污染健康经济效应的CGE分析  

A CGE-based analysis on PM_(2.5)-induced health-related economic effect in Beijing

作　　者：王桂芝[1] 武灵艳 陈纪波[1] 宋迎曦 陈蓉蓉[1] WANG Gui-zhi;WU Ling-yan;CHEN Ji-bo;SONG Ying-xi;CHEN Rong-rong(School of Mathematics and Statistics, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学数学与统计学院,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2017年第7期2779-2785,共7页China Environmental Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(15BTJ019)

摘　　要：为了研究细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))污染对公众健康和经济系统造成的影响,以北京市为例,首先通过暴露-反应关系量化分析PM_(2.5)污染的负面健康效应,从而得到劳动力损失和额外医疗费用,进一步在封闭经济下建立可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,将劳动力供给变化和额外医疗费用作为传导变量反馈到模型中,模拟PM_(2.5)污染对国民经济系统的外生冲击.结果表明,2013年北京市PM_(2.5)污染造成22247人[95%置信区间(CI):6286~34705]死亡,超过一百万人患病,额外医疗费用约为11.13(95%CI:2.91~18.82)亿元.进一步,负面健康效应导致产业部门总产出损失约239.69(95%CI:85.93~372.05)亿元,地区生产总值(GDP)损失约9.01(95%CI:3.53~13.57)亿元.In order to assess the effects of fine particulate matter(PM2.5)on public health and the economy,Beijing city was taken into account,where negative health effects of local residents were firstly quantified via an exposure-response relationship,so as to obtain corresponding labor force losses and additional health care costs.A Computable General Equilibrium(CGE)model could then be built in a closed economy to simulate exogenous shocks on the entire economic system of labor force losses and additional health care costs by the PM2.5pollution.According to the results,22247(95%confidence interval[CI]:6286-34705)premature deaths have been caused by the PM2.5pollution with more than1million related medical cases in Beijing in2013.The additional medical cost on that was estimated to rise to about1.113(95%CI:0.291-1.882)billion RMB.In addition,23.969(95%CI:8.593-37.205)billion RMB have been costed on the total output of the industrial sector,as well as901(95%CI:353-1357)million RMB loss to regional Gross Domestic Product(GDP)in Beijing.

关 键 词：PM2.5 CGE 暴露-反应关系 健康经济损失 

分 类 号：X820.3[环境科学与工程—环境工程] X196