基于概率风险分析的填埋场安全防护距离研究  

A probabilistic risk-based method to determine the safety protection distance for solid waste landfill

作　　者：徐亚[1,2,3,4] 刘玉强[1,2] 能昌信[1,2] 王琪[1,2,3] 黄启飞[1,2] 董路[1,2] XU Ya;LIU Yu-qiang;NAI Chang-xin;WANG Qi;HUANG Qi-fei;DONG Lu(State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environment Sciences, Beijing 100012;Research Institute of Solid Waste Management, Chinese Research Academy of Environment Sciences, Beijing 100012, China;Engineering Research Center for Groundwater Pollution Control and Remediation, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100085, China;College of Water Science,Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100085, China)

机构地区：[1]中国环境科学研究院,环境基准与风险评估国家重点实验室,北京100012 [2]中国环境科学研究院,固体废物污染控制技术研究所,北京100012 [3]北京师范大学,地下水污染控制与修复教育部工程研究中心,北京100875 [4]北京师范大学水科学学院,北京100875

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2017年第7期2786-2792,共7页China Environmental Science

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划(2014BAL02B03);国家自然科学基金项目(61503219);中央级院所基本科研业务专项重点项目(2016YSKY14);山东省自然科学基金(ZR2014DL008)

摘　　要：针对危险废物填埋场(HWL)的建设运行现状和环境事故发生特点,确定以防渗层事故性破损为最大可信事故,以破损后渗滤液渗漏导致的人体健康危害为目标,提出了基于概率风险的HWL安全防护距离(SPD)确定的基本原则、方法和流程.对中部地区某HWL的安全防护距离进行了计算和不确定性分析,结果表明:考虑不同防护对象(污染物)情形下,计算得到的SPD值有所差异:以Cr的致癌危害,Cr、无机氟化物和Zn的非致癌危害为防护对象时,SPD值分别等于620、448、355和0m;不确定性分析表明受降雨量、水文地质参数不确定性的影响,SPD值存在较大的不确定性,经过P95校正的SPD为990m,大于GB 18598-2001中规定的800m的防护距离;最后文章指出安全防护距离的确定受场区降雨和蒸发条件、水文地质条件、填埋场接纳和填埋废物类型及其防渗系统配置等诸多因素影响,因此应该针对不同填埋场及其特征划定其SPD值,不宜采用一刀切的方法,统一规定HWL的安全防护距离.Based on the analysis of hazardous waste landfill(HWL)'s characteristics of construction,operation and environmental accidents,this paper identifies its maximum credible accident as the damage of linear system,and determines the safety protection objective as preventing people around the site free from the harm due to drinking groundwater contaminated by leachate leakage.Furthermore,it proposes a probabilistic-risk based method,as well as principles and procedures underlying,to determining the Safety protection distance(SPD).This method was then applied to calculate the SPD for a HWL in the central China.The result indicates that:with the consideration of different contaminants,the SPD varies from the maximum value of620m for the protection purpose of Cr's carcinogenic effect,and the medium value of448m and355m for the protection purpose of Cr and inorganic fluoride's non-carcinogenic effect,to the minimum value of zero for the protection of Zn'hazardous effect.In addition,being influenced by the uncertainties of precipitation,depth of vandose and aquifer,and saturated permeability of vandose and aquifer,there is great uncertainties in the value of SPD.The corrective SPD is990m and greater than the value of800m regulated in the standard of GB18598-2001.This paper finally pointed out that a specific value for each HWL with the consideration of variance in precipitation,hydrogeological condition,types and toxicities of received waste,and characteristics of linear system,rather than a uniform value for all HWL should be recommend in determining the SPD.

关 键 词：概率风险 安全防护距离 渗滤液 健康风险 

分 类 号：X820.4[环境科学与工程—环境工程]