计及风速与风机故障相关性的概率潮流计算  

Probabilistic power flow algorithm of considering the correlations between wind speed and failure of wind turbines

作　　者：叶嘉俊[1] 魏焕政 李牧星 YE Jiajun;WEI Huanzheng;LI Muxing(School of Automation, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou Guangdong 510006, China)

机构地区：[1]广东工业大学自动化学院,广东广州510006

出　　处：《宁夏电力》2017年第3期25-31,共7页Ningxia Electric Power

摘　　要：针对计及风速与风机故障不确定性及相关性的风电并网电力系统概率潮流计算问题,基于Nataf变换建立了能够同时考虑风速、风机故障不确定性和相关性的风电场出力模型,提出一种可灵活处理风速与风机故障相关性的Monte Carlo概率潮流计算方法,并引入"拉丁超立方抽样"技术提高抽样效率,降低计算复杂度。仿真结果表明:该方法能反映风电场出力的实际情况,合理评估风电并网对电力系统概率潮流的影响,有助于风电场的选址及电网规划。Aiming at the problem of the power system probabilistic load flow(PLF)analysis in view of indeterminacy and pertinency of wind speed and failure of wind turbine generators(WTG)when wind power integration,establishes wind farm power output model based on Nataf transform and considering the indeterminacy and pertinency of wind speeds and failure of WTG,puts forward a Monte Carlo PLF analysis method which can flexibly deal with the correlation between wind speed and WTG failure,and introduces the‘Latin hypercube sampling’method to improve sampling efficiency and decrease the computation complexity.The simulation result shows that the method can reflect the practical situation of the wind farm power output,rationally estimate the influence of wind power integration on PLF,helps to the wind farm site selection and power grid planning.

关 键 词：相关性 MonteCarlo法 Nataf变换 概率潮流 拉丁超立方抽样 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]