计及注入转移分布因子估计误差的鲁棒实时调度  

Robust Real-Time Dispatch Considering the Injection Shift Factor Estimation Errors

作　　者：翟鹤峰 杨明[1] 王栋 程凤璐 刘道伟[4] Zhai Hefeng;Yang Ming;Wang Dong;Cheng Fenglu;Liu Daowei(Key Laboratory of Power System Intelligent Dispatch and Control of Ministry of Education Shandong University,Jinan 250061 China;State Grid Qingdao Power Supply Company,Qingdao 266002 China;State Grid Shandong Electric Power Maintenance Company,Jinan 250000 China;China Electric Power Research Institute,Beijing 100192 China)

机构地区：[1]山东大学电网智能化调度与控制教育部重点实验室,济南250061 [2]国网青岛供电公司,青岛266002 [3]国网山东省电力公司检修公司,济南250000 [4]中国电力科学研究院,北京100192

出　　处：《电工技术学报》2017年第14期217-228,共12页Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51007047;51477091);国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2013CB228205);国家电网公司科技项目(XT71-15-056);山东大学基本科研业务费专项资金资助

摘　　要：注入转移分布因子是电网运行分析中的一种重要的线性化灵敏度因子,常用以校验一定发电计划下输电支路的潮流安全。注入转移分布因子的估计误差,会造成对支路潮流估计的偏差,从而威胁电网的安全运行。提出一种可以计及电网注入转移分布因子估计误差的电网实时鲁棒调度方法。首先利用实时量测数据,基于贝叶斯线性回归理论建立注入转移分布因子的概率估计模型,并求解获得注入转移分布因子的误差区间。进而,以电网运行经济性为目标,构建同时考虑节点注入功率扰动及注入转移分布因子估计误差的实时调度模型,并基于Soyster鲁棒优化方法,给出了模型的求解算法。通过对6节点系统、IEEE 118节点系统及IEEE 300节点系统的测试计算与分析,验证了方法的有效性。Injection shift factors(ISFs)are important linear sensitivity factors in power gridoperation analysis.They are commonly used in the security verification of branch power flow with acertain power generation dispatch plan.The estimation errors of ISFs easily result in the deviation ofbranch power flow calculation,and further threaten the power grid operation security.Accordingly,arobust real-time dispatching method considering the estimation errors of ISFs is proposed in this paper.The probabilistic ISF estimation model based on Bayesian linear regression is firstly presented usingreal-time measurement data.Then the ISF error intervals are acquired by solving the estimation model.Aiming to minimize the system operating cost,a real-time dispatching model is built,taken into account the nodal power injection disturbance as well as the ISF estimation errors.The solvingalgorithm of the model is provided based on the Soyster robust optimization method.Calculation tests onsimple6-bus system,the IEEE118-bus system and the IEEE300-bus system validate the proposed approach.

关 键 词：鲁棒调度 实时调度 注入转移分布因子 估计误差 新能源发电 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]