城市商品房库存界定及其去化周期研究——以长三角城市为例  

Inventory Definition and the Cycle of Reducing Inventory of Urban Commercial Houses——Taking the Cities of Yangtze River Delta as an Example

作　　者：徐思超 朱道林[1] 李晓亮[1] 王淼[1] XU Sichao;ZHU Daolin;LI Xiaoliang;WANG Miao(Department of Land Resources Management of China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学土地资源管理系,北京100193

出　　处：《中国国土资源经济》2017年第7期60-64,共5页Natural Resource Economics of China

基　　金：中国土地勘测规划院项目"2016年长江三角洲地区城市地价动态监测分析"(2016131102278)

摘　　要：利通过梳理商品房开发经营相关统计指标,对商品房库存概念进行了重新界定,提出了住宅与商办用房库存去化周期的计算方法,并以长三角13个城市为例,分别计算了各城市住宅和商办用房的实际库存、潜在库存与去化周期。分析表明:虽然不同级别城市的库存总量差异明显,但各城市均表现为住宅库存大于商办用房库存,潜在库存大于实际库存的特征;当前长三角地区各城市住宅存量市场不存在库存压力,但需重点关注住宅潜在库存与商办用房库存的供应及化解。Based on the index with regard to commercial houses development and management,this paper has redefined the concept of commercial housing inventory.By doing this,it has introduced a method to calculate the cycle of reducing inventory of both housing and business offices.Specifically,it has calculated a range of actual inventory,potential inventory,and the cycle of reducing inventory of housing and business offices that relate to the thirteen cities of Yangtze River Delta.The analysis result indicates that the inventory quantity in different cities shows notable difference;yet,in these cities,the common characteristics are as follows:housing inventory is more than inventory of business offices,and the potential inventory is more than actual inventory.In conclusion,there is no inventory pressure in housing stock market in the cities of Yangtze River Delta;the issues that need special attention must be focused on the supply and reduction of housing potential inventory and business offices inventory.

关 键 词：住宅库存 办公楼 商业营业用房 实际库存 潜在库存 去化周期 长三角 

分 类 号：F407.1[经济管理—产业经济] F062.1