基于Logistic模型的土地利用格局影响因素分析——以重庆市义和镇为例  

Analysis on the Influencing Factors of Land Use Pattern Based on Logistic Model:A Case Study of Yihe Town,Chongqing

作　　者：李晓[1,2] 冯长春[1,2] 李天娇[1,2] 张文晖 LI Xiao;FENG Changchun;LI Tianjiao;ZHANG Wenhui(College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871;Key Laboratory of Territorial Planning and Development, Ministry of Land and Resources, Beijing 100871;Shenzhen Institute of Building Research Co. Ltd.,Shenzhen 518049)

机构地区：[1]北京大学城市与环境学院,北京100871 [2]国土资源部国土规划与开发重点实验室,北京100871 [3]深圳市建筑科学研究院股份有限公司,深圳518049

出　　处：《北京大学学报（自然科学版）》2017年第4期741-748,共8页Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis

基　　金：国土资源部公益性行业科研专项(201511001-01);国家科技支撑计划重点项目(2012BAJ22B04)资助

摘　　要：以重庆市涪陵区义和镇为研究对象,从自然因素、经济因素和社会因素3个方面,构建该地区土地利用格局的影响因子体系,运用Logistic回归模型对耕地、园地、林地、交通运输用地、水域及水利设施用地、城镇村及工矿用地等6类用地的利用格局进行拟合分析。研究发现,自然条件是影响义和镇土地利用格局的根本性制约因素,但经济因素和社会因素对土地利用格局的影响作用也逐渐显著;土地利用格局与到居民点的距离、到河流的距离、到道路的距离的回归结果多为负方向,说明距离这些区位要素越近,土地利用的发生比越大,也表明耕作半径对地形复杂地区土地利用格局的影响作用比较显著;到李渡工业园区的距离因子对各类用地格局的影响均不显著,说明其短时间的发展尚未对义和镇的土地利用格局产生影响。Yihe Town,located in Fuling District,Chongqing,is taken as the research object,and Logistic regression model is applied to analysis the relationship between the land use pattern of cultivated land,garden land,forest land,transport land,waters and water conservancy facility land,urban village and industrial land and its influencing factors,which consists of the natural factors,economic factors and social factors.The results show that the natural factors of the town are the fundamental restrictive factors of land use patterns while the economic factors and social factors have a more and more significant impact.The regression coefficients of the nearest distance to the settlements,the river and the road are negative,which means that the land distributes near the location factors,and the effect of radius farming is significant in area with complicated geomorphology.The distance to the Lidu Industrial Park is not significant for all kinds of land use types,which means that the rapid development of the Lidu Industrial Park does not bring a big impact on the land use pattern of the town.

关 键 词：土地利用格局 影响因素 LOGISTIC回归模型 义和镇 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]