热钱流动对我国股市波动影响的实证分析  

An Empirical Analysis on the Impact of Hot Money Flow on the Stock Market Volatility in China

作　　者：王玉华[1] 赵平[1] Wang Yuhua;Zhao Ping(Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,Guiyang 550025,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州财经大学,贵州贵阳550025

出　　处：《当代经济管理》2017年第5期93-97,共5页Contemporary Economic Management

基　　金：贵州财经大学引进人才科研项目<中国开放型经济发展模式转型路径研究>(201501023)

摘　　要：在全球资本管制逐渐放松的条件下,国际资本流动不断加快,对金融市场的影响也在增大。虽然我国对资本项目的管制并没有完全放开,但仍然难以杜绝国际热钱的流入。文章通过建立VAR模型实证分析了国际热钱流动对我国股市波动的影响,研究发现,热钱流动会引起我国股票价格指数的变动,但引起的波动幅度不大,热钱流入规模与上证指数间不存在双向的格兰杰因果关系,股票市场的价格波动具有其自身规律性。With globally gradual loosening on capital controls,international capital flows are accelerating and its impacts on financial markets arealso increasing.Although the capital account has not been opened yet in China,it is still difficult to eradicate the international hot money inflows.The article,through the building of a VAR model,analyzed the impacts of the hot money on the volatility of China's stock market.It is found thatthe hot money does contribute to the change of the stock market index of China's stock market.However,the volatility is not significant.There isno two-way Granger causality relationship between the Shanghai Composite Index and the hot money,and the fluctuation of the stock market indexhas its own regularity.

关 键 词：国际热钱 股市波动 VAR分析 

分 类 号：F831.7[经济管理—金融学] F832.51