牙龄推断数学模型的建立  

Mathematical Models of Dental Age Estimation for Shanghai Juvenile

作　　者：史格非[1] 庞艳霞[2,3] 刘瑞珏[1] 仓勇 李孝鹏 朱广友[1] SHI Gefei;PANG Yanxia;LIU Ruijue;CANG Yong;LI Xiaopeng;ZHU Guangyou(Shanghai Key Laboratory of Forensic Medicine; Shanghai Forensic Service Platform; Institute of Forensic Science Ministry of Justice, PRC, Shanghai 200063, China;Medical School of Taizhou College, Taizhou 318000, Zhejiang China;The Institute of Forensic Science of Shanghai Lvduo Information Science & Technology Co.Ltd., Shanghai 200063, China;Wuxi Intermediate People’s Court, Wuxi 214001, Jiangsu, China;Shanghai Forensic Institute of Shenyuan Medical Science and Technology Ltd. Shanghai 200050, China)

机构地区：[1]司法部司法鉴定科学技术研究所上海市医学重点实验室上海市司法鉴定专业技术服务平台,上海200063 [2]台州学院医学院,浙江台州318000 [3]上海律铎信息科技有限公司司法鉴定所,上海200063 [4]无锡市中级人民法院,江苏无锡214001 [5]上海申远医学科技有限公司司法鉴定所,上海200050

出　　处：《刑事技术》2017年第4期283-288,共6页Forensic Science and Technology

基　　金：中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(No.GY2017G-8);上海市法医学重点实验室资助项目(No.17DZ2273200);上海市司法鉴定专业技术服务平台资助项目(No.16DZ2290900)

摘　　要：目的探索上海地区青少年牙龄推断的科学、简便和实用方法。方法应用改良后的Demirjian分级方法对2000年6月至2006年11月上海市第九人民医院符合纳入标准的11~20周岁汉族青少年501例(男性168例,女性333例)口腔曲面断层全景片进行研究,利用SPSS15.0 for windows软件包对第三磨牙与左下颌七颗恒牙与生活年龄的相关性进行研究,并建立牙龄推断的数学模型。结果上海地区青少年男性34牙和女性37牙与生活年龄之间的相关性最好;利用第三磨牙和左下颌7颗恒牙建立的牙龄推断数学模型,当允许误差控制在±1岁时,其推断准确率平均达74.66%;而当允许误差在±1.5岁时,其推断准确率平均达89.37%。结论上海地区青少年第三磨牙和左下颌7颗恒牙与生活年龄之间具有良好的相关性;所建立的牙龄推断数学模型可与骨龄鉴定方法一起用于司法鉴定实践。Objective To explore a scientific,facilitating and practical method of dental age estimation for Shanghai juvenile.Methods Buccal orthopantomograms of501Chinese Han juvenile(168males and333females,age of11~20year-old)were selected from Shanghai Ninth People's Hospital where the above people were collected during June,2000to November,2006because of their accordance with the inclusion criterion.The modified Demijian's ranking was chosen to study the above orthopantomograms.Windows-exclusive SPSS15.0was used to analyze the correlation between the teeth development and life age so that the mathematical models were worked out for age estimation.Results The highest correlations have been found between life age and male's34tooth or female's37one.The multiple regression equations were constructed to estimate dental age based on the analysis of the third molar and the7permanent teeth inside the left lower jaw,demonstrating the accuracy of dental age estimation at74.66%and89.37%under the respective allowable deviation of±1year-old and±1.5ones.Conclusion A good correlation has been discovered between life age and the third molar and/or7permanent teeth in left mandible.The builtup mathematic models could be joined with skeletal age estimation for forensic practical use.

关 键 词：法医人类学 牙齿 年龄推断 数学模型 

分 类 号：DF795.6[医药卫生—法医学]