气温与PM2.5协同作用对疾病急诊就诊人数的影响  

Synergetic effect of mean temperature and PM_(2.5) on emergency room visits for different diseases

作　　者：张莹[1] 王式功[1] 贾旭伟[2] 冯鑫媛[1] 胡文东[1] 杨柳[1] 王嘉鑫[1] 肖丹华[1] 朱蓉[1] ZHANG Ying;WANG Shi-gong;JIA Xu-wei;FENG Xin-yuan;HU Wen-Dong;YANG Liu;WANG Jia-xin;XIAO Dan-hua;ZHU Rong(Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, College of Atmospheric Sciences,Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China;People’s Liberation Army 93544, Baoding 072655, China)

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程大学大气科学学院,高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室,四川成都610225 [2]中国人民解放军93544部队,河北保定072655

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2017年第8期3175-3182,共8页China Environmental Science

基　　金：上海市气象与环境重点实验室开放基金课题(QXJK201601);国家重点研发计划(2016YFA0602004);国家自然科学基金(91644226);国家人口健康科学数据共享平台(2005PKA32400)

摘　　要：为评价气温和PM_(2.5)协同作用对不同种类疾病急诊就诊人数的影响,采用广义相加模型(GAMs)中的不分层模型、非参数二元响应模型和温度分层模型,在控制了时间序列长期趋势、"星期几效应"、节假日效应和相对湿度等因素的影响后,分析2009~2011年北京市PM_(2.5)在不同气温条件下对相关疾病急诊就诊人数影响的暴露-反应关系.结果表明,随着选取的气温分层临界值升高,PM_(2.5)在高温条件下的效应逐渐增强,当临界值为28℃时,高温条件下的效应最显著,此时PM_(2.5)浓度每升高10μg/m^3,全急诊人数、呼吸系统和循环系统疾病急诊就诊人数的超额增加百分比分别为0.15%(95%CI:0.11%,0.19%),0.35%(95%CI:0.26%,0.44%)和0.34%(95%CI:0.09%,0.59%),而<28℃的条件下无统计学意义,表明高温与PM_(2.5)对人群健康的影响存在协同加强效应.To quantitatively evaluate the synergetic effect of ambient temperature(AT)and PM2.5on different diseases'emergency room visits(ERVs)in Beijing.After considering some potential confounding factors,such as long term trend of time series,“day of week”effect,holiday effect,and relative humidity,the generalized additive models(GAMs)including non-stratification model,nonparametric bivariate response model and temperature-stratified parametric model,were used to analyze the exposure-effect relationship between PM2.5and ERVs in different temperature conditions from2009to2011in Beijing.The results showed that,the health effect of PM2.5significantly enhanced under higher temperature with the temperature stratification critical value increasing.The exposure-response relationship between PM2.5and ERVs appeared most significant when28℃was chosen as a critical value.The effect estimates per10μg/m3increase in PM2.5corresponding to0.15%(95%confidence interval(CI):0.11%,0.19%),0.35%(95%CI:0.26%,0.44%)and0.34%(95%CI:0.09%,0.59%)increase of total,respiratory and cardiovascular ERVs on high temperature(>28℃),respectively.However,there was no statistical significance when the temperature was less than28℃.It means that there was a synergistic strengthening effect of high temperature and PM2.5on public health in Beijing.

关 键 词：气温 PM2.5 协同作用 广义相加模型 

分 类 号：X503.1[环境科学与工程—环境工程]