基于MOS的内蒙古风电场风机风速预报方法研究  

Study on the wind speed forecast methods on wind farms in Inner Mongolia

作　　者：姜学恭 王德军[2] 冯震 石岚 李忠 Jiang Xuegong;Wang Dejun;Feng Zhen;Shi Lan;Li Zhong(Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Meteorological Observatary, Inner Mongolia Huhhot 010051;Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Meteorological Informational Center,Inner Mongolia Huhhot 010051;Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Meteorological Service Center, Inner Mongolia Huhhot 010051)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古气象台,内蒙古呼和浩特010051 [2]内蒙古气象信息中心,内蒙古呼和浩特010051 [3]内蒙古气象服务中心,内蒙古呼和浩特010051

出　　处：《内蒙古气象》2017年第3期3-7,共5页Meteorology Journal of Inner Mongolia

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41365003);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201206026)

摘　　要：采用基于T639数值预报产品的MOS预报,建立了内蒙古风电场风机风速预报模型,并与EC集合预报、本地MM5及上级WRF风机风速预报产品进行了对比,结果表明:平均绝对误差、平均相对误差、均方根误差均表现为EC集合预报(集合平均)效果最好,MOS方法次之,均优于本地MM5和WRF指导。由于集合预报、MOS方法预报时效较长,因而具有显著的业务应用价值。MOS方法制作风机风速预报的优点在于:以形势场作为预报因子,发挥了形势预报更为准确的优势,同时能够有效消除模式的系统误差。Based on the T639numerical weather prediction production,a wind speed forecast method based on the MOS technique on the wind farm in Inner Mongolia had been developed.And a comparition among the results of the MOS,the EC ensemble forecast,the local MM5forecast and the superior WRF forecast production had been conducted.The result shown the EC ensemble forecast production gained the best effect and the MOS method took the second place.Both of them were better than the local MM5and the superior WRF production.Considering the long period of validity the EC ensemble forecast and MOS production performed the great operation value.The merit of MOS was the using of prognosis factors exerted its advantage of the precise and removed the systematic error of numerical weather prediction.

关 键 词：风电场 风速 预报 MOS 

分 类 号：P457.5[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]