土地利用政策仿真模拟框架构建——基于两类模型的对比分析  

Land use policy simulation modeling framework:A comparative analysis based on two models

作　　者：重多[1] 许祖学 柴克清[1] 黄诚[1] 郭华松 CHONG Duo;XU Zu-Xue;CHAI Ke-Qing;HUANG Cheng;GUO Hua-Song(Tibet Autonomous Region Planning and Development Institute of Land and Resources, Xizang Lasa 850000, China)

机构地区：[1]西藏自治区国土资源规划开发研究院,西藏拉萨850000

出　　处：《上海国土资源》2017年第3期13-17,共5页Shanghai Land & Resources

基　　金：武汉市软科学项目"武汉市国土空间功能定位与优化利用研究"(2016040306010208)

摘　　要：土地政策是土地利用优化管理的重要手段。土地优化利用蕴含丰富的人类活动信息,可以通过改变生态系统类型及生态过程影响生态系统服务功能,进而影响人类福祉。本研究在界定土地利用政策模拟内涵的基础上,从复杂政策行为表现中厘清土地利用、生态系统服务功能和人类福祉之间的传动机制,分别构建基于系统动力学(system dynamics,SD)模型和可计算一般均衡(computable general equilibrium,CGE)模型框架,解析生态系统服务功能和人类福祉在不同土地利用优化政策下的变化问题,及其政策变化所带来的直接或间接影响。最后从研究尺度、数据依赖性和预测功能等方面系统对比两类模型在土地利用优化政策模拟中的优缺点和适用条件。研究成果可为土地利用政策制定和实施提供参考,降低土地利用相关政策制定存在的风险、降低损失。The land policy is an important meaning of land use optimization management.Optimizing land use contains abundant information on human activities,which can affect the ecosystem service function by changing the type of ecosystem and ecological process,and then affect the well-being of human beings.Based on the definition of land use policy simulation,this paper analyzes the mechanism of land use,ecosystem services and human well-being from the complex behavior of policy behavior,and constructs the system dynamics based on system dynamics(SD)model and computable general equilibrium(CGE)model framework to analyze the changes of ecosystem service function and human welfare under different land use optimization policies and the direct or indirect impact of policy changes.Finally,the advantages and disadvantages of the two models are compared in terms of research scale,data dependency and forecasting function,and their application conditions in the land use optimization policy simulation are systematically compared.The research results can provide reference for the formulation and implementation of land use policy,reduce the risk of land use policy making and reduce the loss.

关 键 词：土地利用优化 政策仿真模拟 生态系统服务功能 系统动力学(SD)模型 可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]