气候系统与气候变化研究进展  

Progress in Climate System and Climate Change Research

出　　处：《中国气象科学研究院年报》2016年第1期29-46,共18页Annual Report of Cams

摘　　要：2016年，气候系统（极地气象）研究所在气候预测理论与方法、气候系统模式研发以及极地气候研究方面获得了显著进展。揭示了GPCP和CMAP资料在北半球夏季风降水年际变率上的不一致性，提出基于两者算数平均减小该不确定性的方法和理由。GPCP和CMAP降水资料因覆盖全球范围和时间跨度较长而广泛用于气候监测和气候变率研究中。资料对比分析表明，尽管GPCP和CMAP资料均可描述北半球季风区降水的季节循环特征，但两者之间仍然存在明显的绝对误差，这种差异在5—10月的西北太平洋（WNP）季风区最为明显，表现为CMAP资料中WNP季风区夏秋季降水较GPCP资料数据偏多。In2016,the Institute of Climate System(Polar Meteorology)has achieved remarkable improvements in the fi elds of(1)theory and methodology of climate prediction,(2)development of climate system model,and(3)polar climate.This work has revealed the discrepancy between GPCP and CMAP precipitation products in terms of the seasonal and interannual variations of boreal summer monsoon rainfall,and the arithmetic mean of the two products is shown to reduce such uncertainties.GPCP and CMAP precipitation products with global coverage and long record length have been widely used to monitor the climate status and study the climate variability.Our recent work has pointed out that although the GPCP and CMAP products are able to describe the seasonal cycle of rainfall in the boreal summer monsoon region,the absolute error between them is still evident.In particular,the difference in rainfall amount is largest from May to October in the western North Pacific(WNP)monsoon region,presenting more summer and autumn rainfall in the GPCP product.

关 键 词：气候系统模式 气候变化 夏季风降水 极地气候 西北太平洋 季风区 预测理论 不一致性 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]