近44 a毛乌素沙地西缘气候特征及其未来可能变化趋势  

The Characteristics of Climate Changes in Western Edge of Mu Us Sandy Land During the Past 44 Years and Estimation of Future Climate Trend

作　　者：安莉娟[1] AN Lijuan(Inner Mongolia Climate Centre,Hohhot 010051,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古气候中心,内蒙古呼和浩特010051

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2017年第4期25-31,共7页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：内蒙古地方标准项目"干湿指数气候类型等级";内蒙古自然基金"有效降水下限在地区干旱评估中的应用与评估"项目(2016MS0376)共同资助

摘　　要：利用1971—2014年毛乌素沙地西缘气象观测资料,分析了该地区的气温、降水、相对湿度的时空变化特征,运用R/S分析法预测未来毛乌素沙地西缘气候要素可能变化趋势。结果表明:(1)近44 a毛乌素沙地西缘气温呈显著上升趋势,降水量呈弱的增加趋势,相对湿度呈弱的下降趋势,但是二者趋势并不显著。(2)近44 a毛乌素沙地西缘气温空间分布呈南高北低,降水和相对湿度均呈东多西少,各地气候倾向率存在明显的差异性,中部气温增幅较大,东部降水增加较多,南部相对湿度减少较多。(3)近44 a来毛乌素沙地西缘各气象要素变化均表现出一定的周期性,年平均气温主要存在4~5、8~10 a的振荡周期,降水量主要存在3~4、6~8 a振荡周期,相对湿度主要存在2~4、6~8 a的振荡周期。(4)毛乌素沙地西缘未来气温仍呈上升趋势可能性较大,未来降水量可能变为减少趋势,未来相对湿度变化不稳定。The spatial and temporal characteristics of temperature,precipitation and relative humidity in the western margin of Mu Us sandy land were analyzed by using the meteorological observational data from1971to2014,and R/S method was used to predict the future climate change trend.The results showed that:(1)The temperature in the western margin of Mu Us sandy land had increased significantly in the past44years.Precipitation showed a weak increasing trend and relative humidity showed a weak decreasing trend,but the two trend was not significant;(2)The temperature in the west margin of Mu Us sandy land in the recent44years presented the features of south warming and north cooling.More precipitation and higher relative humidity occurred in the east parts in the region,opposite occurrence in west parts.There were obvious regional differences in climatic tendency of each climate element,the temperature increased greatly in the central parts,and the precipitation increased significantly in the east parts,and the relative humidity decreased obviously in the south parts.;(3)The temperature,precipitation and relative humidity in the western margin of Mu Us sandy land all had obvious periodical oscillation in the recent44years.The period of averaged temperaturewas mainly4-5a,8-10a,precipitation existed3-4a,6-8a scale periodic oscillations and the relative humidity was2-4a,6-8a scale periodic oscillations;(4)In the future,the temperature in the western edge of Mu Us sandy land is likely to keep on increasing,precipitation will decrease.

关 键 词：气温 降水量 相对湿度 HURST指数 毛乌素沙地西缘 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]