大豆生产者价格波动影响因素实证分析  

Empirical Analysis on the Influence Factors of Soybean' Production Price Fluctuation

作　　者：韦敬楠 张立中[1] 胡天石[2] WEI Jing-nan;ZHANG Li-zhong;HU Tian-shi(College of EconomicManagement,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083,China;College of EconomicManagement,China Agriculture University,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学经济管理学院,北京100083 [2]中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《四川农业大学学报》2017年第3期445-451,共7页Journal of Sichuan Agricultural University

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(11BJY097)

摘　　要：【目的】深入剖析大豆生产者价格波动的影响因素,缓解我国大豆价格频繁波动。【方法】通过选取2001—2014年度数据,结合国内生产与需求状况、外部因素及国家政策等因素,运用VAR模型实证分析了我国大豆生产者价格波动的影响因素。【结果】国际大豆价格、大豆进口量和生产成本与大豆生产者价格波动呈正向关系,但生产成本对大豆生产者价格波动产生的影响不显著;大豆压榨量与大豆生产者价格波动在短期内呈明显的反向关系,豆粕价格与大豆生产者价格波动呈微弱的反向关系。【结论】外部市场变化对我国大豆价格波动的影响更加显著,应该综合利用关税措施来缓和我国大豆价格剧烈波动。【Objective】To analyze the influence factors on the production price fluctuations of soybean,reducing the frequent fluctuations of domestic soybean production price.【Method】By choosing annualdata from2001to2014,combined with domestic situation of production and demand,external factorsand factors of national policy,empirically analyzed the influence factors of domestic soybean price fluc原tuation by using the model of VAR.【Results】The results show that:The price of international soybean,import of soybean,and the production costs have positive relationship with the fluctuation of domesticsoybean price,but the impact of soybean costs is not significant.The amount of soybean crush has sig原nificant negative relationship with the fluctuation price of soybean in the short term.In addition,price ofsoybean meal has a weak negative relationship with the fluctuations price of soybean.【Conclusion】Thechange of external market has more significant influence on the price fluctuations of domestic soybean,comprehensive tariff measures should be taken to mitigate the violent fluctuation of domestic soybean price.

关 键 词：大豆价格 波动 影响因素 实证分析 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济]