国际物流绩效的贸易效应分析——基于Heckman模型的实证检验  

The Trade Effect Analysis on International Logistic Performance——Based on the Empirical Test of Heckman Model

作　　者：刘洋 殷宝庆[2] LIU Yang;YIN Bao-qing(Shanghai University of Medicine & Health Science,Shanghai201318,China;Zhejiang Technical Institute of Economics,Hangzhou,Zhejiang310018,China)

机构地区：[1]上海健康医学院健康信息技术与管理学院,上海市201318 [2]浙江经济职业技术学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《中国流通经济》2017年第10期28-36,共9页China Business and Market

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金"绿色技术外溢与‘中国制造’在GVC的攀升:理论与实证"(16YJA790060);浙江省自然科学基金项目"绿色技术外溢效应与‘中国制造’升级研究--基于国际垂直专业化视角"(LY17G030009)

摘　　要：采用扩展的引力模型分析100个国家与地区2013年国际物流绩效的贸易效应,赫克曼模型回归结果表明:第一,国际物流绩效显著地提高双边贸易流量,且出口国的国际物流绩效系数高于进口国系数,采用不同的回归方法以及按照经济体水平分类实证研究表明这一结论具有稳健性;按照地区分类的最小二乘法回归表明,国际物流绩效显著促进了双边贸易流量,而拉丁美洲与加勒比地区国际物流绩效对贸易有负面影响。第二,国际物流绩效分项指标回归显示:出口国的海关效率、物流基础设施、物流发展水平对双边贸易具有显著的正向作用;进口国的海关效率在不同经济体、不同地区之间的显著性存在差异,尤其是欧洲中亚地区进口方的海关效率系数为负数,而亚太经合组织区域内的海关效率显著为正数。With the help of Augmented Gravity Model,the authors analyze the trade effect of international logistic performance in100countries and regions in2013.The regression of Heckman model shows that:first,international logistic performance can significantly improve bilateral trade flow,the international logistic performance coefficient of exporting countries is higher than that of importing countries,and empirical research with different regression methods and different level of economic entities demonstrates the robustness of this conclusion;and second,the subitem indicator of international logistic performance shows that the custom efficiency,logistic infrastructure and logistic development level of exporting countries will have significant positive effects on bilateral trade,custom efficiency of importing countries will be different according to different economic entities and regions,especially,the custom efficiency coefficient of importing countries in Central Asian regions in Europe is negative,while that in APEC regions is positive.

关 键 词：国际物流绩效 贸易效应 海关效率 引力模型 

分 类 号：F252.1[经济管理—国民经济]