基于系统动力学的连锁零售多级库存优化与仿真  

Research on Optimization and Simulation of Multi-echelon Inventory of Chain Retail based on System Dynamic

作　　者：赵川 张浩[1] ZHAO Chuan;ZHANG Hao(Beijing Technology and Business University,Beijing100048,China)

机构地区：[1]北京工商大学商学院,北京市100048

出　　处：《中国流通经济》2017年第10期73-80,共8页China Business and Market

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"我国生鲜农产品电子商务与传统流通体系的融合发展研究"(15BGL202);北京市自然科学基金项目"深度不确定与大数据环境下连锁零售企业物流供应链预警决策研究"(9162002);国家科技课题"农资物流安全配送关键技术与装备研究示范"(2015BAD18B01)

摘　　要：连锁零售企业多级库存系统中各节点存在着由于需求预测不准确、订货时间随意、订货量缺乏动态时变性等因素而导致的总体库存量高于理想水平、库存周转率低下、库存成本过高等问题。为解决此类问题,可从动态系统的角度构建由供应商、配送中心和门店组成的多级库存协同管理系统动力学模型,以超市发连锁零售门店的进销存数据为实证数据,应用Vensim平台对模型进行仿真研究。通过敏感性分析对库存调节周期、配送时间、需求预测权重、安全库存天数等参数进行改进,最终得到一个优化的连锁零售多级库存系统动力学模型。实验结果表明,该模型能够有效降低企业库存量,提高库存周转效率,降低库存成本。In order to solve the problem of high inventory level,expensive inventory costs and low efficiency of inventory turnover in chain-retail industry due to inaccurate demand forecasting,inefficient reorder time and undynamic replenishment,we,from the view of system dynamics,proposed a multi-echelon inventory collaborative management model which consists of branch stores,distribution centers and suppliers.The raw data of inventory from a real chain retail company was collected to validate and simulate the proposed model on Vensim.Sensitivity analysis was carried out to optimize adjustment period,delivery time,demand forecast weight,safety inventory and other parameters.Results show that the proposed model can produce a lower inventory level,a more efficient inventory turnover rate and a lower inventory cost for multi-echelon inventory in retail chains.

关 键 词：系统动力学 连锁零售 多级库存优化 

分 类 号：F713.1[经济管理—产业经济]