社会养老保险与消费支出:来自新型农村社会养老保险的证据  

Social Pension Insurance and Consumption:Evidence from New Rural Social Pension Insurance

作　　者：于大川[1] 赵小仕[1] Yu Dachuan;Zhao Xiaoshi(Social Security Institute, Guangdong University of Finance, Guangzhou 510520, China)

机构地区：[1]广东金融学院社会保障研究所,广东广州510520

出　　处：《当代经济管理》2017年第10期81-87,共7页Contemporary Economic Management

基　　金：广东省哲学社会科学"十二五"规划学科共建项目(GD15XSH03);广州市哲学社会科学"十三五"规划一般项目(2017GZYB34);广东金融学院校级课题一般项目(16XJ02-09)

摘　　要：利用农村地区实行新型农村社会养老保险这一政策变化来研究养老保险获取对农民消费支出的影响。实证分析结果表明,新农保制度对农民的消费支出有显著的负向影响,参加新农保制度会使农民的基础性消费和高层次消费分别降低4.5%和0.6%;进一步分析显示,新农保制度对不同年龄段农民消费支出的影响存在结构性差异,对60岁以下参保农民的消费支出具有明显的"挤出"效应,会同时降低年轻农民的基础性和高层次消费,但对60岁及以上参保农民的消费支出没有显著的促进作用。要实现新农保制度的消费刺激功能,还需在制度投入、制度设计、机制创新等方面下功夫。By using the policy changes after the new pension insurance program has been introduced in China's rural areas,this paper examines how the pension insurance coverage affects farmers'consumption.The empirical results show that the new rural social pension insurance has signif icant negative effect on farmers'consumption,and farmers who participate in the system reduce their basic consumption and high-level consumption by4.5%and0.6%respectively;Further analysis shows that the new rural social pension insurance system has structural difference in the ef fect on the consumption of different age groups of farmers.The system has obvious"crowd out"effect on consumption of those under60,and at the same time the system reduces young farmer's basic and high-level consumption.For those who are60or above,the system does not have a obvious promoting functon in consumption.So if the government wants to achieve the function of stimulating consumption of new rural pension insurance system,it still needs to work on system input,system design,mechanism innovation and other aspects.

关 键 词：新型农村养老保险 农民 消费支出 财富代替效应 预期收入效应 CSS数据 

分 类 号：F842.67[经济管理—保险]