CFSv2模式对巴彦淖尔市夏季月气温和降水量预测能力的评估  

Evaluation on Summer Temperature and Precipitation Predictions in Bayannur by CFSv2 Model

作　　者：张保龙[1] 尤莉[2] 孙玉[3] Zhang Baolong;You Li;Sun Yu(Bayannur Meteorological Bureau,Inner Mongolia Linhe 015000;Climate Center Inner Mongolia, Inner Mongolia Hohhot 010051;Erdos Meteorological Bureau, Inner Mongolia Dongsheng 017000)

机构地区：[1]巴彦淖尔市气象局,内蒙古巴彦淖尔015000 [2]内蒙古气候中心,内蒙古呼和浩特010051 [3]鄂尔多斯市气象局,内蒙古鄂尔多斯017000

出　　处：《内蒙古气象》2017年第5期3-7,共5页Meteorology Journal of Inner Mongolia

基　　金：内蒙古自治区气象局"气候与气候变化创新团队"资助

摘　　要：基于美国环境预测中心的CFSv2模式输出的1984—2009年6—8月平均气温和降水量格点数据,以及巴彦淖尔市9个气象台站的气温和降水实况数据,评估该模式对巴彦淖尔市6—8月气温、降水的预测能力。结果表明:模式对气温气候平均态的模拟和实况分布存在差异,降水反映出东多西少的分布特征,但气候平均值明显偏小。模式预测气温明显高于实况,但能够较好地反映26a气温的变化趋势,两者年际变化相关显著;模式预测降水量平均仅为实况降水量的1/2,并且对>50mm月降水量的预测能力较差。Pc、Ps评分检验显示,6月评分高于7、8月,降水量高于气温,模式对降水量预测的Ps评分已达到业务考核标准,经量级订正后,可以业务应用。Based on monthly average temperature and precipitation grids data from June to August during1984-2009output by CFSv2model of the United States Environment Forecast Center,and observation data of temperature and precipitation at9stations in Bayannur,the skills of model prediction for summer temperature and precipitation in Bayannur are evaluated.The results show that the model simulation of temperature of climate mean state is different to the observation.While it shows that the simulated precipitation is more in the east and less in the west,but the average climate is obviously smaller.Although the model predicted temperature is obviously higher than actual situation,it still can reflect the trend of temperature in26a,and the interannual variations were significantly correlated.The mean precipitation of model prediction only reach1/2of actual precipitation,both negative correlation,and the prediction ability is declined when it comes to heavy rain and above.The score test like Pc,Ps and Acc show that the score of June is better than that of July and August,The precipitation is higher than the air temperature,and the Ps score of the model has reached the operational assessment criteria and can be used in business applications.

关 键 词：CFSv2 气候预测 巴彦淖尔市 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]