高分辨率数值探空资料在呼和浩特地区暴雨预报中的应用分析  

The Study Aboutthe Rainstorm Forecast In Hohhot With the High Resolution Model Radiosonde Data

作　　者：张敏 Zhang Min(Inner Mongolian Meteorological Observatory, Inner Mongolian Hohhot 010051)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古气象台,内蒙古呼和浩特010051

出　　处：《内蒙古气象》2017年第5期12-14,45,共4页Meteorology Journal of Inner Mongolia

摘　　要：利用BJ-RUCV2.0数值模拟资料、呼和浩特站观测资料,借助2013年7月14—15日呼和浩特地区暴雨过程,对比了数值和观测两类探空资料的参量差异,分析了数值探空资料的预报性能,结果表明:(1)就露点温度预报而言,提前12h起报的数值探空预报效果更好,但每个起报时刻的数值资料都对整层大气预报略偏湿;(2)提前12h起报的数值探空资料所反映的逆温层位置和厚度最接近实况资料,对温度预报效果最好;(3)与观测探空资料相比,数值探空资料的不稳定能量偏强,这将导致模拟降水出现时间比实况要提前;(4)在对短时临近预报有指示意义的12h预报时效内,CAPE值08时起报的误差较小,K指数20时起报的预报误差较小。The performance of BJ-RUCV2.0model sounding data and the differences of model and routine soundingparameters in rainstorm forecast are studied by means of one typical rainstormin Hohhot region ofInner Mongolia using the BJ-RUCV2.0model data and conventional observation data.The results show that,(1)the dew point temperature model field initial from the12hours ahead of the routine sounding timeis similar with the routine data,but the modelhumidity field of the whole atmosphere is more wet.(2)the modeltemperature field can simulate the position and thickness of the inversion layer more accuratelywhich is initial from the12hours ahead of the routine sounding data.(3)compared with the routine data,the instability energy of model data is stronger,it should make the precipitation appears earlier,(4)the forecast error of CAPE initial from08Beijing time is smaller and the error of K initial from20Beijing time is smallerwithin12hours beforethe emergence of rainstorm which is significant for the short-time forecast.

关 键 词：BJ-RUCV2.0模式 呼和浩特地区 暴雨预报 T-logP图 CAPE K 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]