印度国家实力的要素评估与前景展望  

India's National Power Assessment and Its Development Trajectory

作　　者：杨晓萍[1] 葛成[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社科院亚太与全球战略研究院

出　　处：《战略决策研究》2017年第6期45-64,共20页Journal of Strategy and Decision-Making

摘　　要：国家实力是一国国际地位与战略选择的基础。当前对于印度国力与发展趋势的研判,存在两种相反观点,这值得在分析框架和因果联系上进行再论述。在静态国家资源上,印度存在"结构性"不足,与中国差距巨大,不是中国的战略竞争对手;而莫迪的改革,有可能通过对内结构性改革,对外调整战略关系,更有效地整合国家资源,从而提升印度国家实力。在最终结果上,将取决于两点,一是系列改革措施在邦的层面及精英阶层观念层面的实际效果;二是印度如何平衡其经济发展利益与地缘政治需求间的内在矛盾。中期来看,印度经济实力上与中国的差距不会大幅缩小;军事力量上对中国的威慑性会有所提升;在战略选择上,过度与美走近,反而会增加印度的地缘风险,不利于印度国家力量的整体提升。National power is the basis of international status and strategic choice of a country.There are two opposing views on the analysis of Indias national power and development trend,which deserve to be discussed in the analytical framework and causal association.In terms of static resources,India has structural insufficiency and a huge gap with China.Whether the Modis revolution can be successful or not is decided by two factors:the first is the effect of the series reform measures nationwide and the ideology of elite class.The second is the balance of inherent contradictions between India's economic development interests and geopolitical needs.For the medium term,the gap between India and China in economic strength will not be reduced.In terms of international strategy,for India to be too close to the U.S.will intensify its geopolitical risk and be adverse to its development of overall national power.

关 键 词：国家力量 莫迪改革 国家资源 转换机制 战略互动 

分 类 号：D735.1[政治法律—政治学]