基于偏最小二乘法的加氢换热器NH_4Cl结晶温度预测模型  

Predicting Model of Ammonium Salt Crystallization Temperature Based on Partial Least Squares Approach in a Hydrogenation Heat-Exchanger

作　　者：金浩哲 叶浩杰 偶国富 朱华兴 张国信 汤红年 JIN Haozhe;YE Haojie;OU Guofu;ZHU Huaxing;ZHANG Guoxin;TANG Hongnian(The Flow Included Corrosion Institute, Zhejiang Sci Tech University, Hangzhou 310018,China;SINOPEC Guangzhou Engineering Company Limited, Guangzhou 510260, China)

机构地区：[1]浙江理工大学流动腐蚀研究所,浙江杭州310018 [2]中石化广州工程有限公司,广东广州510260

出　　处：《石油学报（石油加工）》2017年第6期1176-1182,共7页Acta Petrolei Sinica(Petroleum Processing Section)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金委员会-神华集团有限公司煤炭联合基金(U1361107);国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFF0210403);浙江省自然科学基金(LY17E060008);浙江省科协“育才工程”项目(2017YCGC016)资助

摘　　要：为解决加氢装置换热器中NH_4Cl结晶机理不清、结晶温度预测难、实际指导关联性差的问题,以某加氢改质装置换热器失效为研究对象,采用工艺过程模拟,基于实际操作工况进行工艺计算分析,明确加氢换热器NH_4Cl结晶失效风险,揭示NH_4Cl结晶沉积腐蚀机理,同时确定换热器NH_4Cl结晶温度主要影响因素。运用偏最小二乘法构建多变量下加氢换热器NH_4Cl结晶温度预测模型。结果表明,换热器E1103A/B中存在NH_4Cl结晶风险,结晶温度为188℃。反应流出物系统中压力、氯含量及氮含量是影响NH_4Cl结晶温度的主要因素,所建立的预测模型具有良好的精度(最大相对误差为2.73%,平均相对误差MRE为1.34%,均方根误差RMSE为3.09),实现了NH_4Cl结晶温度的定量预测。In a hydrogenation heat exchanger,the crystallization mechanism of NH4Cl is unclear,the crystallization temperature is difficult to predict and the actual guidance is poorly related.In order to solve these problems,this paper takes the heat exchanger failure of a hydrogenation reforming device as a research object,and carry out a process analysis using the process simulation method based on the actual operating conditions.By this process analysis,the crystallization failure risk of NH4Cl was revealed,the crystallization mechanism of NH4Cl was revealed,and the main influencing factors of NH4Cl crystallization temperature were determined.The multivariate hydrogenation heat exchanger NH4Cl crystallization temperature prediction model has been constructed by using partial least squares method.Simulation results showed that there is the risk of crystallization of NH4Cl in the heat exchanger E1103A/B,with the crystallization temperature being188℃.The system pressure,chlorine content and nitrogen content in the reaction effluent system are the main factors affecting the NH4Cl crystallization temperature,the established prediction model has good accuracy(the maximum relative error is273%,the average relative error MRE was1.34%,the root mean square error RMSE was3.09),which realized the quantitative prediction of NH4Cl crystallization temperature.

关 键 词：加氢换热器 失效分析 NH4C1结晶温度 偏最小二乘法 预测模型 

分 类 号：TQ026.5[化学工程]