Analysis on the Changes of Accumulated Temperature,Initial and Terminal Dates and Duration Days of Main Boundary Temperature in Zhangjiakou City  

作　　者：Zhou Yanli 

机构地区：[1]Zhangjiakou Meteorological Bureau, Zhangjiakou 075000, China

出　　处：《Meteorological and Environmental Research》2016年第5期6-12,共7页气象与环境研究（英文版）

摘　　要：Global warming has become a topic of widespread attention. The climate change will affect the change of agricultural climate resource,thereby affecting the agricultural planting structure,the grain yield,etc. Based on the daily temperature of Zhangjiakou from 1960 to 2011,the temporal changes of ≥0 ℃ and ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperatures were analyzed by using the methods of linear trend estimation and M-K mutation test. The results indicated that(1) the annual average temperature showed an increasing trend with the linear warming rate of 0. 42 ℃ /10 a in the past 52 years. In 1982,the annual average temperature had abrupt change,especially after 1983,the warming trend increased significantly.(2) In the past 52 years,≥0 ℃ accumulated temperature showed an increasing trend with the warming rate of 89. 4 ℃ /10 a. Mutation point of ≥0 ℃ accumulated temperature appeared in 1983,and after 1985,≥0 ℃ accumulated temperature increased sharply. At the same time,the ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature had abrupt change in 1983,especially from 1987 to 1995 and after 1986,the warming trend increased sharply.(3) The initial date of ≥0 ℃ presented significant advancing trend,and that of ≥10 ℃ had little change,while their terminal dates presented delaying trend,so the sustained days of ≥0 ℃ and ≥10 ℃ increased significantly.(4) In the past 52 years,the delay of the terminal dates of ≥0 ℃ and ≥10 ℃ was greater than the advancing of the initial dates,and ≥0 ℃ accumulated temperature had a greater increase than ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature.Global warming has become a topic of widespread attention. The climate change will affect the change of agricultural climate resource,thereby affecting the agricultural planting structure,the grain yield,etc. Based on the daily temperature of Zhangjiakou from 1960 to 2011,the temporal changes of ≥0 ℃ and ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperatures were analyzed by using the methods of linear trend estimation and M-K mutation test. The results indicated that(1) the annual average temperature showed an increasing trend with the linear warming rate of 0. 42 ℃ /10 a in the past 52 years. In 1982,the annual average temperature had abrupt change,especially after 1983,the warming trend increased significantly.(2) In the past 52 years,≥0 ℃ accumulated temperature showed an increasing trend with the warming rate of 89. 4 ℃ /10 a. Mutation point of ≥0 ℃ accumulated temperature appeared in 1983,and after 1985,≥0 ℃ accumulated temperature increased sharply. At the same time,the ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature had abrupt change in 1983,especially from 1987 to 1995 and after 1986,the warming trend increased sharply.(3) The initial date of ≥0 ℃ presented significant advancing trend,and that of ≥10 ℃ had little change,while their terminal dates presented delaying trend,so the sustained days of ≥0 ℃ and ≥10 ℃ increased significantly.(4) In the past 52 years,the delay of the terminal dates of ≥0 ℃ and ≥10 ℃ was greater than the advancing of the initial dates,and ≥0 ℃ accumulated temperature had a greater increase than ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature.

关 键 词：Accumulated TEMPERATURE INITIAL and terminal DATES DURATION DAYS M-K test Mutation China 

分 类 号：P423[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]