长江口海平面上升预测及其对滨海湿地影响  

Projection of Sea Level Rise and Its Impacts on Coastal Wetlands Within the Yangtze Estuary

作　　者：易思 谭金凯 李梦雅[1,2] 梁鑫鑫[1,2] 王军[1,2] Yi Si;Tan Jinkai;Li Mengya;Liang Xinxin;Wang Jun(Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science of Ministry of Education, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241 China;School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China)

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,上海200241 [2]华东师范大学地理科学学院,上海200241

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2017年第6期598-605,共8页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(41671095;51761135024;71373084);国家自然科学基金人才培养项目(J1310028)

摘　　要：选择吴淞站和吕四站2个验潮站数据,通过统计学方法进行长江口海平面上升预测,从而构建了一套长江口地区较完备的海平面上升情景库:以2013年为基准年份,其最佳预测值的范围在2030年、2050年、2100年分别为50~217 mm,118~430 mm,256~1215 mm。以此情景库为基础,探究海平面上升变化对长江口滨海湿地的影响,结果表明:随着海平面上升值的增加,长江口滨海湿地的面积不断减少;在基于验潮站数据作趋势外推得到的情景下,湿地面积减少较平缓,而在考虑全球变暖背景的情景下,湿地面积减少迅速;且不论在何种情景下,时间尺度越大,湿地减少的面积越大。A new statistical method was proposed to project the sea level rise(SLR)within the Yangtze Estuary using the monitoring data at two tide gauge stations(Wusong and Lüsi),and then four representative prediction values of SLR published in previous research were integrated,to generate a relatively complete scenario matrix for studies of SLR in this area.Setting the year2013as the baseline,the optimum projection range of SLR projected to the year2030,2050and2100is50?217mm,118?430mm and256?1215mm,respectively.Moreover,the impacts of SLR in each projected scenario were evaluated,and for simplicity,only the change of coastal wetlands area was considered in this paper.Results showed that,with SLR becoming increasingly remarkable,the coastal wetlands in Yangtze Estuary would shrink continuously.Besides,in scenarios without consideration of climate change,which means that the SLR are projected merely on basis of historical data,the shrink of wetland areais notably slower,compared with that in scenarios which considered global warming.In general,the shrink of wetland area is larger in the long term(2100)than that in the short term(2030and2050).

关 键 词：长江口 海平面上升 预测 情景分析 滨海湿地 

分 类 号：P731.23[天文地球—海洋科学]