“中元”区构建的经济可行性研究——基于SVAR模型  

The Economic Feasibility Study of Accomplishing “China Yuan”——Base on Structural VAR Model

作　　者：赵瑾婷[1] Zhao Jinting(Wuxi Vocational and Technical College of Technology, Wuxi 214153, China)

机构地区：[1]无锡商业职业技术学院,江苏无锡214153

出　　处：《江苏商论》2017年第12期65-68,共4页Jiangsu Commercial Forum

摘　　要：本文建立了一个四变量的SVAR模型,分别从经济冲击的相关性、脉冲响应效应、经济冲击规模三个方面,考察了中国境内两岸四地构建"中元"区的经济可行性。实证结果表明,中国内地、澳门和台湾之间、中国内地与香港之间可以尝试建立子通货区,两岸四地不适宜建立最优通货区。To investigate the economic feasibility study of monetary integration of four areas of China,We constructed a four-variable structural VAR model and analysed the problem from three aspects:the correlation of economic impact、the impulse response effect、the economic impact scale.Our empirical research show it is not suitable to found a comprehensive single currency union in China,however,it is possible to form a sub-currency zone in three groups of areas,which include“China、Macao and Taiwan”and“China and Hong Kong”.

关 键 词：SVAR模型 结构性冲击 两岸四地 中元 

分 类 号：F031.2[经济管理—政治经济学]