高速公路交通气象灾害风险评估方法简介  

An Introduction to a Risk Assessment Method of Traffic Meteorological Disaster on Highway in China

作　　者：柳艳香[1] 潘进军[1] 田华[1] 吴昊[1] 李蔼恂[1] 戴至修 杨静[1] 宋建洋[1] 王志[1] 李巧媛 Liu Yanxiang;Pan Jinjun;Tian Hua;Wu Hao;Li Aixun;Dai Zhixiu;Yan Jing;Song Jianyang;Wang Zhi;Li Qiaoyuan(China Meteorological Administration Public Meteorological Service Center, Beijing 100081;Hunan Province Meteorological Observatory, Changsha 410007)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局公共气象服务中心,北京100081 [2]湖南省气象台,长沙410007

出　　处：《气象科技进展》2017年第6期18-21,共4页Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology

摘　　要：简要介绍了我国高速公路交通气象灾害风险评估方法。选取了对高速公路交通运行影响最大的气象因子:低能见度、降雨、冰冻雨雪和大风,通过模糊数学法和灰色关联度等方法的客观计算,以及AHP的主观打分等方法对高速公路交通运行致灾的气象因子危险性进行了研究,结合孕灾环境的敏感性、承灾体的暴露性和脆弱性及防灾减灾能力等要素,基于GIS技术将各指标栅格成10 kmx10 km的基本单元进行拓扑处理,将高速公路交通气象灾害风险从高到低划分为5个等级,用不同颜色表示,最终得到了全国高速公路交通气象灾害风险的评估结果。A risk assessment method of traffic meteorological disasters on Highway was introduced in this paper.The hazard of meteorological factors,such as low visibility,heavy rainfall,gale and frozen rain and snow,were analyzed by applying Fuzzy mathematical and Grey correlation,and were compared with subjective method of AHP.Simultaneously,the risk of traffic meteorological disaster on highway was assessed by using the sensitivities,exposure,vulnerability and capacity of disaster prevention and reduction.Based on GIS technology,the area was divided into the basic grid units of10km×10km over China.The each index was processed on the grids,such as normalization,calculation,overlaying and classification.Ultimately,the risk assessment of traffic meteorological disasters on Highway in China was presented as in,5grades from high to low classified with red,orange,yellow,blue,green,respectively.

关 键 词：高速公路 交通气象灾害 风险评估 GIS 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] U492.8[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]