上海市无缝隙天气预报技术  

Aspects on Seamless Weather Forecast Technologies for Shanghai city

作　　者：储海[1] 陈雷[1] 戴建华[1] 王海宾[1] 李佰平[1] 张欣[1] 孙敏[1] 刘梦娟[1] Chu Hai;Chen Lei;Dai Jianhua;Wang Haibin;Li Baipin;Zhang Xin;Sun Min;Liu Mengjuan(Shanghai Central Meteorological Observatory, Shanghai 200030)

机构地区：[1]上海中心气象台,上海200030

出　　处：《气象科技进展》2017年第6期59-66,共8页Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology

摘　　要：介绍了支持上海市气象局无缝隙预报业务的几类客观预报方法和业务系统。上海市气象局无缝隙格点预报产品涵盖0~45 d的五类不同分辨率、不同要素产品。从0~6 h与实况相衔接的逐10 min定量降水预报,24~240 h的要素最优集成订正预报,到延伸期45 d的逐日趋势预报。依赖各类客观预报方法生成的格点预报背景产品,结合格点预报制作和预报检验系统,使得预报员在此基础上有效地制作发布格点预报,在满足现代化格点预报要求精确度的同时,最大程度地帮助预报员减轻了人工操作的负担。Shanghai meteorology bureau has built its seamless grid forecast products with different forecast elements and resolution for term rang from0to45days.In this article,the objective forecast technologies and operation systems used to form the grid forecast were briefly introduced.A background grid-forecast was made without manual intervention for the requirements on(1)0-6h blended quantitative precipitation forecast consisted with current observation;(2)24-240h consensus forecast of calibrated operation NWPs;(3)11-45d extended-range forecast.Finally,forecasters would give edit and publication on to the grid forecast with the help of our integrated forecast system and forecast evaluation system.By means of these objective tools,the grid forecast was able to get demanded precision without adding more burdens to forecasters.

关 键 词：无缝隙预报 客观订正 集成预报 非常规检验 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]