华东区域数值预报系统对极端降水预报能力的评估  

Verification of the Extreme Precipitation Forecast from SMS-WARMSV2.0

作　　者：王晓峰[1,2] 许晓林[2,3] 徐同[2,3] 杨玉华[2,3] 张赟程[1,2] Wang Xiaofeng;Xu Xiaolin;Xu Tong;Yang Yuhua;Zhang Yuncheng(Shanghai Institute of Meteorological Science, Shanghai 200030;Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Tropical Cyclone, Shanghai 200030;Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai 200030)

机构地区：[1]上海市气象科学研究所,上海200030 [2]中国气象局台风数值预报重点实验室,上海200030 [3]中国气象局上海台风研究所,上海200030

出　　处：《气象科技进展》2017年第6期67-74,共8页Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：上海市科委重点基金项目(13231203300;17DZ1205300)

摘　　要：对SMS-WARMSV2.0业务系统、欧洲中期天气预报中心全球模式(EC模式)及全球预报系统模式(GFS模式)2016年1—12月降水预报结果进行统计检验,并对2016年我国多个极端降水案例进行对比检验。结果表明:技巧评分(TS)、公平技巧评分(ETS)、真实技巧评分(TSS)和击中率(PODY)多种统计检验指标证实华东区域数值预报系统对小雨、暴雨和大暴雨的预报技巧优于EC和GFS全球模式,在暴雨以上量级优势更为显著。多个极端降水案例检验表明,区域模式相对于全球模式对极端降水具备更强的预报能力。The precipitation forecasts from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF),The Global Forecast System(GFS),and Shanghai Meteorological Service WRF ADAS Real-Time Modeling System2(SMS-WARMSV2.0)models were compared by using statistical verification methods for year2016.In addition to routine daily evaluation,some extreme rainfall events were also included in the comparisons.O multiple statistical scores of the ETS,TS,TSS,and PODY,the SMS-WARMSV2.0shows better skill in the prediction of light and heavy rainfalls compared to ECMWF and GFS.The advantage of SMS-WARMSV2.0over other two global models is especially true for heavy and extreme rainfall events.This suggests the regional model has improved skill in the prediction of extreme rainfalls comparing to global models.

关 键 词：SMS-WARMSV2.0 极端降水 评估 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]