延伸期过程预报预测技术及应用  

The Extended-Range Process Prediction Technique and Application

作　　者：陈伯民[1] 梁萍 信飞[1] 周坤[1] 李震坤[1] 孙国武[1,2] 董广涛[1] Chen Bomin;Liang Ping;Xin Fei;Zhou Kun;Li Zhenkun;Sun Guowu;Dong Guangtao(Shanghai Climate Center, Shanghai 200030;Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou 730020)

机构地区：[1]上海市气候中心,上海200030 [2]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,兰州730020

出　　处：《气象科技进展》2017年第6期82-91,共10页Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：中国气象局现代气候业务发展与改革工作及中国气象局气象新技术推广项目(CMAT G2008M22);中国气象局关键技术集成与应用重点项目预报预测检验业务专项(CMAGJ2014Z04);中国气象局关键技术发展专项(YBGJXM(2017)04);中国气象局青年英才专项;中国气象局次季节至季节气候预测和气候系统模式创新团队攻关任务;国家科技支撑项目(2009BAC51B05);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306030和GYHY201006020);上海自然科学基金项目(12ZR1449400);上海市气象局研究型业务专项(YJ201604)

摘　　要：对自主研发的低频图方法和低频波方法、延伸期过程预测客观检验指标(Zs和Cs评分)、月内重要过程与趋势预测系统(MAPFS 2.1)及其推广应用情况做了介绍。对近4年(2013—2016年)上海地区汛期延伸期强降水过程业务预测和近2年(2015—2016年)冬季延伸期强降温过程业务预测进行了客观检验。结果显示,汛期强降水过程、冬半年强降温过程(强冷空气过程)预测准确率分别为67.3%和43.2%,Zs/Cs评分分别为0.153/0.130、0.139/0.09。低频图方法对各年汛期最强降水过程均给出了较好的预测,说明预测方法具有一定的预测潜力。基于MJO(Madden-Julian Oscillation)活动的上海汛期逐候降水趋势预测方法2年(2014—2015年)的预测结果Ps评分平均达到58分,为汛期延伸期强降水过程预测和入梅、出梅延伸期预测提供了较有价值的预测背景信息。This paper introduces the Method on Low-Frequency Synoptic Weather Map and on low-frequency wave in key region,the verifying indices for extended-range weather process forecast,the related operational system(MAPFS2.1)and their promotional application,and further works for verifying of the heavy rainfall processes during flood seasons in2013-2016and the heavy cooling processes(cold air processes)during winters in2015-2016.The results indicate that the accuracy rate of the heavy rainfall process forecasts and of the strong cooling process forecasts were about percent of67.3and43.2respectively,and correspondingly their scores of Zs and Cs reached0.153/0.130and0.139/0.09in turn.The Low-frequency synoptic weather map method accurately forecasted the heaviest precipitation process for each year in2013-2016.This suggested that the approaches have the advantage for predicting the extended-range weather process indeed and have tremendous room for improvement.The MJO-activity-depending approach of the pentad precipitation anomaly over Shanghai during flood seasons made a delightful encouraging performance for2014-2015with Ps score of58and supplied the valuable predicting background in determination of extended-range weather process and the beginning and the end of Meiyu rain.

关 键 词：延伸期过程预测 低频图预测方法 低频波预测方法 延伸期过程预测客观检验指标 MAPFS系统 

分 类 号：P456.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]