两个模式对平流层温度模拟的比较与分析  

Comparison and analysis of stratospheric temperature simulated by two models

作　　者：刘宁微[1,2,3] 马建中 伍湘君[4] 孙健[4] 王扬锋[3] 张云海[3] LIU Ningwei;MA Jianzhong;WU Xiangjun;SUN Jian;WANG Yangfeng;ZHANG Yunhai(Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Institute of Atmospheric Environment,China Meteorological Administration,Shenyang 110165,China;Numerical Weather Prediction Center of China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学,江苏南京210044 [2]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [3]中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所,辽宁沈阳110165 [4]中国气象局数值预报中心,北京100081

出　　处：《大气科学学报》2017年第6期721-728,共8页Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：中国气象局大气化学重点开放实验室开放课题(2017B02);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201406005;GYHY201306062;GYHY201406031);国家自然科学基金资助项目(41375146)

摘　　要：利用第5代欧洲中心—汉堡大气环流模式ECHAM5全球大气环流谱模式和中国气象局自主研发的GRAPES全球同化与预报模式分别对2010年1月1—6日全球平流层温度进行了模拟分析,结合相应时段的全球最终分析资料FNL,对比评估了两个模式对平流层温度的模拟效果,并对较为显著的误差现象进行了分析与探讨。结果表明:对于50 h Pa高度上的温度,ECHAM5模式模拟的温度与FNL资料的结果在研究时段内随时间的变化很小,而GRAPES模式模拟的结果在南半球随时间变化显著偏暖。进一步将ECHAM5和GRAPES模式所用的温度初始场进行对比研究表明,两者的分布形态非常形似,尤其是在南半球地区,大部分差值接近于零。将ECHAM5采用的全球臭氧廓线应用于GRAPES模式中,对比发现南半球平流层异常增温的现象仍然存在。因此,温度初始场和臭氧廓线的选取不是造成GRAPES模式模拟出现南半球平流层异常增温的主要原因,需要对GRAPES模式中其他动力及物理过程或参数选取做进一步的深入分析,以弄清其在平流层温度模拟中出现较大偏差的原因。In this study,the5th generation European Centre Hamburg general circulation model(ECHAM5)and global assimilation and prediction system(GRAPES),independently developed by the China Meteorological Administration,were used to simulate the stratospheric temperature during the period of January1-6,2010.The results from the two models were then compared and analyzed,referring to the global final analysis(FNL)data.Through a series of comparisons,it was shown that the temperature variations at50hPa simulated by ECHAM5and FNL varied little over time,whereas the simulations performed by GRAPES were significantly elevated in the Southern Hemisphere.The regional warming projected by GRAPES seemed too distinct and uncontrolled to be reasonable,although the warming pattern remained fairly stable with a value between5and15K relative to the start time.The temperature difference projected by ECHAM5and FNL was small at the start time on the global scale.Over time,the values become larger in more locations,indicating a significant warming projected by GRAPES.In the Southern Hemisphere,where the warming by GRAPES was dominant,the maximal temperature difference was larger than24K at30-60°S latitude,30-60°E longitude for the final two simulation days,then increased to more than12K over the entire Antarctic continent.The temperature initial condition comparison between ECHAM5and GRAPES shows that they are significantly similar,especially in the Southern Hemisphere,with the difference values being about zero.Moreover,although the ozone profile of ECHAM5was used in GRAPES,the warming in the Southern Hemisphere simulated by GRAPES still existed.Therefore,the errors produced by GRAPES were not significantly related to either factor.Atmospheric vapor and heating rate may also be factors leading to stratospheric warming,but in this preliminary study these factors could not be investigated,due to a number of technical problems.Further research focusing on the impact of factors such as vapor,heating rate,temperature,etc.will be conducted to

关 键 词：ECHAM5 GRAPES 平流层模拟偏暖 臭氧 初始场 

分 类 号：P421.32[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]