转型期地方政府融资平台信贷博弈仿真研究  

Game Simulation on Credit Financing of Local Government Financing Platform in Transformation Period

作　　者：刘骅[1] 卢亚娟[1] 王舒鸥 LIU Hua;LIU Yajuan;WANG Shuou(School of Finance,Nanjing 211815,China;Nanjing Audit University,Nanjing 211815,China)

机构地区：[1]南京审计大学金融学院,江苏南京211815 [2]南京审计大学党政办公室,江苏南京211815

出　　处：《审计与经济研究》2018年第1期118-126,共9页Journal of Audit & Economics

基　　金：江苏省重点序列学科应用经济学项目(苏政办发[2014]37号);江苏省高校品牌专业建设工程项目(苏教高[2015]11号);南京审计大学2016首批政府审计研究课题"国家金融安全视角下政府债务审计治理研究"(GASA161016)

摘　　要：地方政府融资平台在市场化转型中,政府隐性信用担保的剥离使得该领域信贷市场供需平衡被打破,信贷融资困局逐步形成。在对传统信贷市场理论进行回顾的基础上,通过描述融资平台"双羊群"与"顺周期"效应,刻画其信贷融资的行为特征,并采用计算实验方法对转型期复杂的信贷市场进行博弈仿真分析;构建并拓展商业银行与融资平台信贷融资博弈模型,重点模拟市场化转型情景下,政策因素变化引致信贷市场交易成本与担保收益因素相应变化从而对信贷融资困局造成的影响;结合博弈模型仿真的变量系数,得出通过创新银团贷款模式及引入贷款信用保险服务的策略选择。In the market transition of local government financing platform,the stripping of government's implicit credit guarantee makes the field of credit market supply and demand lose balance,and thus the credit financing difficulties gradually arise.Based on the review of the traditional theory of credit market,this paper expounds the historical and realistic origin of the local debt,and describes the behavioral characteristics of the credit financing by describing the“double herding”and“pro cyclical”effect of the financing platform.The paper also uses the method of computational experiment and game simulation to analyze the complex credit market in the transition period.Based on the idea of“scenario coping”of computational experiment,it constructs and expands the credit financing game model of commercial bank and financing platform,and emphatically simulates how credit market transaction cost results from the change of policy factors and the evolution of guarantee income factor influences the credit financing dilemma in the context of market oriented transformation.Then,combining with the coefficient variables of game simulation model,it summarizes through the innovative syndicated loan model to jointly enhance the efficiency of credit financing,and the introduction of credit insurance services to diversify the risk of credit financing strategy choice.

关 键 词：地方政府融资平台 信贷融资 银团贷款 贷款信用保险 博弈仿真 融资风险 政府债务审计 信贷市场 金融安全 

分 类 号：F812.7[经济管理—财政学]