基于分段重抽样的高效降水降尺度方法  

Efficient precipitation downscaling method based on segmented resampling

作　　者：王永弟[1] 孙心宇[2,3,4] WANG Yongdi;SUN Xinyu(School of Geography and Remote Sensing, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;School of Electronic & Information Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Meteorological Observation and Information Processing, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;Jiangsu Technology & Engineering Center of Meteorological Sensor Network, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学地理与遥感学院,南京210044 [2]南京信息工程大学电子与信息工程学院,南京210044 [3]南京信息工程大学江苏省气象探测与信息处理重点实验室,南京210044 [4]南京信息工程大学江苏省气象传感网技术工程中心,南京210044

出　　处：《中国科技论文》2017年第21期2512-2520,共9页China Sciencepaper

基　　金：江苏高校优势学科Ⅱ期建设工程资助项目(PAPD);南京信息工程大学科研基金资助项目(2012x045;20100077)

摘　　要：针对基于SOM的降水统计降尺度方法存在计算量大、分布不均,且零值较多的问题,提出了1种基于分段重抽样的高效降水降尺度方法。该方法在冬、夏两季分别评估,其过程为首先利用主成分分析法进行气候变量的优选,其次进行SOM聚类,最后采用量级排序并分段随机重复采样的方法估计降水值。对降水降尺度模拟结果进行了评估。该方法能够大幅度减少运算量,对降水量、标准差、降水频率、极端降水事件等指标均有较好的模拟能力。评估结果证实该方法在长江三角洲地区的降水再现能力较强。Aiming at the problems of large amount of computation,uneven distribution and more zero values in SOM based precipitation downscaling methods,one downscaling method for efficient precipitation based on segmented resampling was proposed.This method was evaluated in the two seasons of winter and summer.Firstly,the principal component was exploited to optimize climate variables.Then,the SOM method was used to cluster.Finally,the magnitude was ordered and segmented re sampling was to estimate the precipitation.The downscaling simulation results of precipitation have been evaluated.This method can greatly reduce the amount of computation,and has better simulation ability for such indexes as precipitation,standard deviation,precipitation frequency,extreme precipitation events and so on.The evaluation results show that the method has better ability of precipitation reappearance in the Yangtze River delta.

关 键 词：分段重抽样 降水统计降尺度 自组织映射神经网络 大气环流模态 长江三角洲地区 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]