玉米优良品种推广重心转移及扩散的时空规律  

Temporal and spatial law of promotion center moving and diffusion of excellent maize varieties

作　　者：刘哲[1] 曲艺伟 赵祖亮[1] 李绍明[1] 张晓东[1] Liu Zhe;Qu Yiwei;Zhao Zuliang;Li Shaoming;Zhang Xiaodong(College of Information and Electrical Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学信息与电气工程学院,北京100083

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2018年第1期178-185,共8页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金：北京市重大项目课题(D171100002317002);京津冀作物新品种推广服务云平台建设应用

摘　　要：针对审定品种在推广阶段表现差异巨大、特征规律没有充分挖掘等问题。该文结合1982-2012年玉米新品种推广面积数据,选取种植面积曾达到666 67 hm^2、推广时间大于5 a的品种,以推广时间、最大推广面积等为关键指标,从全国和省份空间尺度分类选取优良品种,发现2类优良品种:在全国推广面积大时间长、具有普遍适宜性的大品种;仅在有限省份推广面积大时间长、具有特殊适宜性的区域特色品种,分析了其推广重心转移及扩散规律。优良品种在不同空间尺度扩散方式一致,呈现2种扩散模式:1)大品种推广重心呈辐射邻近扩散;2)区域品种推广重心呈跳跃式扩散且跳跃距离较远,在1~2个省份出现空间聚集性。优良品种在不同空间尺度都具有扩散效应和重心变化,不同省份品种结构和更替无明显空间相关。该研究可为按省级建立品种推广方案提供参考。Finding the suitable planting environment for the maize variety plays a decisive role in crop varieties precision marketing.New varieties need to adapt to the promotion environment quickly and be supposed to behave well.However,the performance of crop variety during field production results from genotype effect,environment effect,and genotype-by-environment interaction(GEI)effect.So far,the performance of varieties has showed great difference in the promotion stage.On the one hand,the excellent promoted varieties are not sufficient.The analysis methods of characteristics and attributions are still in the initial stage and the index definition varies differently.On the other hand,the laws of characteristics of the excellent maize variety performance have not been fully excavated.For most of the varieties,which have gone through the national regional test,variety certification and screening,the characteristics and rules have not been fully mined.Therefore,many approved varieties have not been accepted by the market in different spatial scales.In this paper,based on the data of the cultivated area of the varieties that have been approved and entered into the promotion period from1982to2012,we fit and verify the applicability of Gaussian model in the province scale.Firstly,we provide a classification method,which helps to find out the excellent promoted varieties and explore the rule of promotion center transformation and diffusion from the different spatial scales.We select the maize varieties whose planting area has reached6.67million hectare or more and the promotion time is more than5years,and the life cycle curve of variety is fitted in both national and provincial scales.Secondly,we classify the varieties and choose the excellent varieties combined with spatial information,discovering the rules that the excellent maize varieties can be divided into2categories,which are big varieties,which should be promoted in most of the provinces with larger area and longer time across the country and reflect the universal su

关 键 词：作物 统计 模型 品种推广 时空特征 优良品种 

分 类 号：S32[农业科学—作物遗传育种] F232.3[农业科学—农艺学]