能源与产业结构调整下江西省1995—2014年温室气体排放特征  

Space-time Characteristics and Correlation Analysis of Carbon Emissions in Jiangxi

作　　者：张晶晶 滕飞[2] 王怀清[3] 唐正[4] ZHANG Jingjing;TENG Fei;WANG Huaiqing;TANG Zheng(Jiujiang Weather Bureau, Jiujiang 330030, JIangxi, China;Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210000, China;Climate Center of Jiangxi Province, Nanchang 330000, China;Development and Reform Commission of Jiangxi Provincial, Nanchang 330000, China)

机构地区：[1]九江市气象局,江西九江332000 [2]南京信息工程大学,南京210000 [3]江西省气候中心,南昌330000 [4]江西省发展改革委,南昌330000

出　　处：《能源研究与管理》2018年第1期45-52,共8页Energy Research and Management

基　　金：2012年度江西省CDM赠款项目"江西省温室气体排放统计核算体系研究"(CDM20121161);国家发展改革委中国清洁发展机制基金2014年度赠款项目"江西省碳排放峰值预测与控制对策研究"(CDM20152837);中国气象局预报员专项项目"2014年第10号台风‘麦德姆’局地特大暴雨成因分析"(CMAYBY2015-039);江西省气象局预报员专项"两次台风暴雨过程中尺度特征对比分析"

摘　　要：近20年是江西省经济社会快速发展,工业化提速的时段,城市化进程加快,也是温室气体排放快速增长时期,研究该时期江西省温室气体变化特征,分析能源产业结构调整下全省温室气体时空分布变化情况,是江西省应对气候变化工作的现实需要。以江西省统计年鉴能源消费总量及构成表所列数据以为基准,运用IPCC推荐碳排放量计算公式,计算、分析江西省1995—2014年碳排放现状及其结构特征,结合碳排放数据、人口及GDP数据,运用魏森燃碳排放强度公式计算江西省能源碳排放强度和人均碳排放强度,分析能源消耗的与之对应关系以及江西省11个设区市的能源碳排放空间特征,结果表明:1)全省1995—2014年碳排放量呈现上升趋势,江西省各年人均碳排放量逐年增加并且均高于全国平均水平,单位GDP碳排放强度逐年降低;2)影响江西省碳排放的主要行业从高到低依次为煤炭行业、油品行业、火力发电、天然气行业这四大行业;3)能源消耗碳排放主要集中在赣北,九江、萍乡、新余、宜春4市的排放占到全省能源碳排放的60%~70%。In the past20years,the economic and social development of Jiangxi Province has been rapid and the speed of industrialization is accelerated.The process of urbanization is accelerating and the period of rapid growth of greenhouse gas emissions is studied.The characteristics of greenhouse gas change in Jiangxi Province during the period are studied,and the greenhouse gas Distribution changes,Jiangxi Province is to deal with the practical needs of climate change.Based on the data of Jiangxi Province Statistical Yearbook,the total energy consumption and the data contained in the composition table,the carbon emissions and the structural characteristics of Jiangxi Province from1995to2014were calculated and analyzed by using IPCC recommended carbon emission calculation formula.Combined with carbon emission data,Population and GDP data,using Weissen's carbon emission intensity formula to calculate energy intensity and per capita carbon emission intensity in Jiangxi Province,analyze the corresponding relationship between energy consumption and the energy carbon emission characteristics of11districts in Jiangxi province.The results show:firstly,the carbon emissions in the whole province from1995to2014showed an upward trend.The per capita carbon emissions in Jiangxi province increased year by year and were higher than the national average,and the carbon intensity per unit of GDP decreased year by year.Secondly,The main industries that affect Jiangxi's carbon emissions from high to low are coal industry,oil industry,thermal power generation and natural gas industry.Finally,space in the province's energy carbon emissions concentrated in northern Jiangxi and northwest Jiangxi,Jiujiang,Xinyu,Pingxiang,Yichun accounted for the whole of the industry from high to low for the coal industry,oil industry,thermal power,natural gas industry,60%to70%of the energy carbon emissions.

关 键 词：碳排放 低碳经济 能源消耗 相关性分析 江西 

分 类 号：TK012[动力工程及工程热物理]