基于生态足迹模型的信贷平衡与风险研究  

The Research on the Credit Balance and Risk Based on the Ecological Footprint Model

作　　者：阮湛洋 RUANG Zhanyang(Yangjiang Municipal Sub-branch PBC, Yangjiang Guangdong 529500)

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行阳江市中心支行,广东阳江529500

出　　处：《西部金融》2017年第12期4-10,共7页West China Finance

摘　　要：金融危机后,在信贷大规模投放的形势下,信贷供需的总量失衡与结构性失衡问题日渐凸显。改善信贷失衡,防范金融体系风险,已成为当前我国经济金融发展的重要课题。本文基于生态足迹模型,创新提出信贷足迹的概念,构建了信贷足迹模型,测算不同地区、不同行业的信贷足迹(需求)和信贷承载力(供给),并对信贷盈余或赤字的状况进行了分析,得出当前我国信贷市场存在较为显著的结构性失衡问题。基于这一结论,本文指出信贷供需失衡状态下金融体系存在的潜在风险,提出加强信贷供给侧结构性改革、实施差异化的信贷资源配置以及防范金融体系风险的政策建议。After the financial crisis,under the situation that the credit supply has greatly increased,the total imbalance and structural imbalance of credit supply and demand have been more and more prominent.Improving the credit imbalance and preventing the financial system risk has become an important issue for China’s economic and financial development.Based on the ecological footprint model,the paper innovates the concept of credit footprint,builds the credit footprint model,measures the credit footprint(demand)and the credit capacity(supply)of different areas and different industries,analyzes the conditions of the credit surplus or deficit,and then draws the conclusion that there exists a significant structural imbalance in China’s credit market.Based on above conclusion,the paper points out that there exists the potential risk in the financial system under the state of the imbalance between credit supply and demand,puts forward suggestions such as strengthening the credit supply-side structural reform,implementing differentiated credit resources allocation and preventing financial system risks.

关 键 词：信贷足迹 信贷平衡 信贷风险 

分 类 号：F832.2[经济管理—金融学]