天然气管道突发事件动态应急决策研究  

Study on dynamic emergency decision for natural gas pipeline unconventional emergencies

作　　者：张志霞[1] 牛苗苗 ZHANG Zhi-xia;NIU Miao-miao(School of Management, Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology, Shaanxi Xi’an 710055, China)

机构地区：[1]西安建筑科技大学管理学院,陕西西安710055

出　　处：《消防科学与技术》2018年第2期241-245,共5页Fire Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(61272458);陕西省自然科学基金项目(2014JM9375)

摘　　要：用云模型与前景理论构建天然气管道非常规突发事件应急方案评价模型。即用熵权法得各应急阶段的主客观时间权重,用云模型得兼顾随机性与模糊性属性指标评价信息定量分析,以其他优化方案为动态参考点,用前景理论得方案云前景决策矩阵,建立了最大前景价值优化模型求得最优属性权重进行方案的加权优选。并且以某城市天然气管道的爆炸事故为例,验证了该决策方法在确定非常规突发事件动态应急方案方面的优越性与合理性。The cloud model and prospect theory were used to construct the emergency project evaluation model of natural gas pipeline unconventional emergencies.The entropy weight method was used to obtain the subjective and objective time weights of each emergency stage.Quantitative analysis of stochastic and fuzzy attribute index evaluation information was carried out by using cloud model.Other optimization schemes was taken as the dynamic reference points and the foreground theory was used to get the cloud foreground decision matrix.The maximum prospect value model was established to obtain the optimal attribute weight to carry out the weighted weighting of the scheme.The explosion and accident of a natural gas pipeline in a city was taken as an example to verify the advantages and rationality of the decision-making method in determining the dynamic contingency plan of unconventional emergencies.

关 键 词：非常规突发事件 天然气管道 云模型 动态应急决策 

分 类 号：X921[环境科学与工程—安全科学] TU996.62[建筑科学—供热、供燃气、通风及空调工程]