农业机械化对安徽省农民增收贡献率实证分析  

Empirical analysis for contribution rate of agricultural mechanization to income increase of farmers in Anhui

作　　者：胡汪洋[1] 刘东林[2] 刘涛 曹成茂[1] 程银彬 李诚 张勇[2] 常志强 HU Wang-yang;LIU Dong-lin;LIU Tao;CAO Cheng-mao;CHENG Yin-bin;LI Cheng;ZHANG Yong;CHANG Zhi-qiang(College of Engineering,Anhui Agricultural University,Hefei 230036,China;Anhui Agricultural Machin Administration,Hefei 230036,China;Anhui Agricultural Machinery Technology Extension Station,Hefei 230036,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽农业大学工学院,合肥230036 [2]安徽省农业机械管理局,合肥230036 [3]安徽省农机技术推广总站,合肥230036

出　　处：《南方农业学报》2018年第2期403-410,共8页Journal of Southern Agriculture

基　　金："十二五"国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAD14B13);安徽省农机购机补贴政策落实延伸绩效管理评价项目(2015FACJ4803)

摘　　要：【目的】定量分析安徽省农业机械化对农民收入增长的贡献率,为农业机械化发展和决策提供科学依据。【方法】归纳得出安徽省2005~2015年影响农民收入增长的11项指标,并查阅统计年鉴得到与指标相对应的时间序列数据,利用有无比较法和柯布—道格拉斯生产函数法分别测算农业机械化为农民增收的直接贡献率和综合贡献率,同时引入因子分析和逐步回归方法,运用SPSS 22.0和Eviews 8.0具体分析2005~2015年安徽省影响农民收入增长的时间序列数据,并确定生产函数模型。【结果】2005~2015年安徽省农业机械化对农民人均纯收入的直接贡献率稳定在9.50%左右,最高年份贡献率达10.25%,2010~2015年和2006~2015年的综合贡献率分别为25.22%和29.40%,证明农业机械化对农民增收具有显著正相关作用。【建议】发挥购机补贴政策的引导推动作用,同时建立新型农业机械维修体系,并加大新型职业农民培训力度,以进一步促进农民增收。【Objective】Contribution rate of agricultural mechanization to income increase of farmers was studied by quantitative analysis to provides scientific basis for the development and decision making of agricultural mechanization.【Method】Eleven indexes affecting income increase of farmers in Anhui during2005-2015were summed up,and the time series data corresponding to the indexes were obtained from yearbooks.Then the direct contribution rate and comprehensive contribution rate of agriculture mechanization to income increase of farmers were calculated respectively based on with/without method and Cobb-Douglas production function method.In addition,factor analysis and stepwise regression method were applied,and SPSS22.0and Eviews8.0software were used to analyze the time series data that affecting income increase of farmers in Anhui during2005-2015to determine the final production function model.【Result】The direct contribution rate of agricultural mechanization to rural per capita net income was stable at around9.50%,and the highest one reached10.25%.The comprehensive contribution rates during2010-2015and2006-2015were25.22%and29.40%respectively,which proved that agricultural mechanization had significant positive effects on income increase of farmers.【Suggestion】The following suggestions are proposed to further promote the income increase of farmers:giving full play to the guiding role of purchase subsidy policy,establishing a new agricultural machinery maintenance system and strengthening the trainings for new professional farmers.

关 键 词：农业机械化 农民增收 柯布-道格拉斯生产函数 贡献率 安徽省 

分 类 号：S23-9[农业科学—农业机械化工程] F323.3[农业科学—农业工程]