欧盟的结构性难题与一体化的未来  

EU's Structural Conundrums and the Future of European Integration

作　　者：王鸿刚[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国现代国际关系研究院世界政治研究所

出　　处：《国际展望》2018年第2期15-31,154,共17页Global Review

摘　　要：不断推进的一体化进程是欧洲历史发展的必然选择,它在为欧洲各国带来和平、繁荣与和谐的同时,也在主权与超主权、民主与效率、扩大与深化、同一与多元、开放与安全、自主与依赖等问题上,存在重大的理论缺陷和实践困境。近年欧洲面临的债务、难民、恐怖袭击、认同等多重危机,便主要源于这种内在的结构性难题。目前,欧盟在应对危机方面采取了不少举措并取得了一定效果,但由于受到多重局限,危机还未能根本消除。综合当前欧洲各方面情况来看,未来数年内一体化发展可能呈现"小步前行"的局面。鉴于当前欧洲面临的重重危机一定程度上是为过去扩大速度过快而付出的代价,未来欧盟在继续扩大问题上势必趋于谨慎;英国脱欧具有其特殊性,因而欧盟成员国数量继续减少的可能性较小;同时,欧洲民众对一体化的热情和支持普遍消退,欧盟通过签订新条约的方式推动一体化取得突破性进展的可能性较小;在现行条约框架下,一体化进程仍有望实现局部推进,但欧盟成员国在一体化速度上很难保持一致,"多速欧洲"可能成为现实选择。Greater integration is an inevitable choice for the European Union, which has brought peace, prosperity, and harmony to its member states. But there have been theoretical deficiencies and operational difficulties in terms of relations between sovereignty and supranationalism, democracy and efficiency, convergence and diversity, openness and safety, and autonomy and dependence. These conundrums have led to Europe's multi-crises of debt, refugees, terrorist attacks as well as identity. Measures have been taken to tackle the challenges and positive results have been achieved. However, due to numerous limitations, crises have not been effectively resolved. In general, European integration will continue in a moderate way in the years ahead. Since the crises can be attributed to a hurried process of enlargement, the EU tends to be prudent in the future expansion. Brexit is a special case and the possibility for other members of EU to follow suit is low. Public support for deeper integration is receding and the possibility of the EU making breakthrough on integration via new agreements is also low. Under the current framework of the agreement, European integration is expected to be promoted in some areas. Since EU members can hardly keep same pace on integration, "multi-speed Europe" might be a realistic choice.

关 键 词：欧盟 结构性难题 多重危机 多速欧洲 一体化的未来 

分 类 号：D85[政治法律—政治学]